Gate News message, April 25 — Brazil’s National Monetary Council (NMC) officially banned 27 prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, through Resolution No. 5,298 issued in late April 2026. The resolution prohibits derivative contracts based on non-economic events such as sports, political elections, and cultural outcomes.
Telecommunications regulator Anatel was instructed to shut down the domains of the affected platforms, rendering them inaccessible to users within Brazil. The Brazilian government describes these platforms as gambling schemes disguised as financial instruments and attributes rising household debt, in part, to unregulated online gambling. Finance Minister Dario Durigan emphasized that the ban aims to protect citizen savings and curb household debt. Derivative contracts are now limited to pre-defined economic benchmarks—including price indices, interest rates, and exchange rates—and must be conducted by firms authorized by Brazil’s Central Bank. Kalshi was included despite recently partnering with Brazilian brokerage XP International in March 2026, while Polymarket was targeted for offering unlicensed binary event contracts.
Industry experts and critics argue the broad ban stifles digital finance innovation and may drive users toward less transparent offshore platforms. Prediction markets are often valued for their ability to aggregate information more accurately than traditional polls. Meanwhile, Brazil’s restrictive approach contrasts sharply with the U.S. regulatory stance. In February 2026, the U.S. CFTC withdrew a prior proposal to categorically ban contracts on elections and sports, instead classifying event contracts as “swaps” under the Commodity Exchange Act. The CFTC issued a new Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on March 12, 2026, to establish standards rather than bans, allowing prediction platforms like Kalshi to operate under strict market manipulation safeguards.
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