Gate News message, April 25 — U.S. crude oil exports are on track to hit a new all-time high of 5.48 million barrels per day following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has redirected Asian and European buyers toward American supply. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that U.S. exports of crude and petroleum products reached nearly 12.9 million barrels per day last week, the highest level ever recorded. Kpler data also showed U.S. liquefied natural gas shipments reached record levels last month.
The Hormuz closure has created significant market disruptions. Before the war, approximately 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products were shipped daily through the strait. The supply shock caused Dated Brent (physical crude oil cargoes loaded on set dates from North Sea terminals) to trade more than $25 per barrel above front-month Brent futures contracts in early April—an exceptionally rare premium between these two prices. Brent futures averaged about $100 per barrel in April, while physical cargo prices traded closer to $121 per barrel. JPMorgan analyst Natasha Kaneva estimated the April supply loss at 13.7 million barrels per day. However, countries are drawing from commercial and strategic oil reserves at approximately 7.1 million barrels per day, while demand is expected to drop by 4.3 million barrels per day in April, mainly in the Middle East and Asia, narrowing the global supply gap to 6.6 million barrels per day.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which hold nearly all of the world’s spare production capacity, have been effectively cut off from global oil markets due to the Hormuz closure. Kaneva noted that while current prices do not appear extreme by historical standards, higher pump prices are already beginning to curb discretionary driving in the U.S., and rising airfares are starting to soften jet fuel demand.
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