Comprehensive analysis of data indicators: BTC has fallen below the key level of 100,000 USD. Is the bull run really over?

Organized & Compiled: Shenchao TechFlow

Podcast Source: 10x Research

Original Title: A Deep Dive into Bitcoin Bear Market On Chain and Market Indicators

Release date: November 13, 2025

Key Points Summary

About 10x Research

Predicted the lowest point of Bitcoin in October 2022, and expects that by March 2024, Bitcoin will rise to $63,160 before the halving (halving time adjusted to April, with a final price of $63,491).

In January 2023, we predicted that Bitcoin would rise to $45,000 before Christmas, and this prediction has come true (the final price was $43,613).

In September 2023, it was pointed out that Bitcoin mining companies would become a key investment direction in 2024. Recently, in November 2023, we predicted that Bitcoin would rise to $57,000 after the approval of the ETF.

It is predicted that Bitcoin will rise to $70,000 in January 2024 and will experience a pullback near the peak in March 2024.

This podcast 10x Research will bring you a heavy analysis, delving into the bear market of Bitcoin:

What do on-chain data and market signals really tell us? Has Bitcoin entered a bear market? How should traders respond now?

In the past three weeks, especially in our report on October 22, we have repeatedly emphasized some key signals. The plunge on October 10, the subsequent unusual behavior of investors, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's uncertain stance on the prospect of a rate cut in December are not isolated events, but rather manifestations within the same macroeconomic context.

With the SEC's approval of Bitcoin ETFs, regulation is no longer the main obstacle to a bull market. The real reason for the stagnation of the bull market lies in the fact that when market capital inflows weaken and profit-taking exceeds new demand, the market loses upward momentum.

This episode of the podcast will analyze charts, capital flows, and various data points in detail to help you determine whether Bitcoin is currently in a bull market or a bear market. Even if Bitcoin is indeed in a bear market right now, this bear market may not last long.

Highlights of Insights

When the price of Bitcoin falls below the 21-week moving average (EMA), the market enters a minor bear market.

If the price of Bitcoin falls below the range of 110,000 - 112,000 USD, we will continue to maintain a bearish view; however, if the price breaks through this range, it may turn bullish.

In the past 30 days, long-term holders have sold 185,000 bitcoins, with a total value of approximately $20 billion. Long-term holders believe that the current market may decline further, so they choose to exit the market.

On-chain data also shows that this could be a deeper market correction. The market currently seems to have entered a bearish phase dominated by sell-offs. Sell-offs may occur in various forms and could last longer.

We predict that Bitcoin may rebound to $110,000 before falling again.

Historically, when the price of Bitcoin falls below the actual average price, the market usually enters a deep bear market phase. Currently, the actual average price is around $82,000, which is an important dividing line between the end of the Bitcoin bull market and the beginning of the bear market. If the price falls below this level, the market may first test the key support level of $93,000.

As long as the price of Bitcoin is below $113,000, we will continue to maintain a bearish market outlook.

Whether the Bitcoin price is below the 21-week moving average is an important indicator for judging market trends.

We expect the next round of a bull market to start after a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which is one of the key factors we are closely monitoring.

Bitcoin breaks below the 21-week EMA - a key threshold for the bull market.

The key indicator we are currently focusing on is the 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Typically, when the Bitcoin price falls below this indicator, the market enters a minor bear market. This indicator played a crucial role during the transition from bull to bear market in 2022, helping us avoid significant losses that many encountered in the market.

In addition, we also observed market adjustments in the summer of 2024, as well as corrections in the first quarter of this year. This indicator not only confirms these corrections but also gives us an early warning. These adjustments typically range from around 30% to 40%, having a significant impact. Therefore, it is crucial to set a clear reference line, and the current reference line is $110,000.

Multiple indicators point to a Bitcoin price range of $110,000 to $112,000. If the Bitcoin price falls below this range, investors need to manage risks, reduce bullish positions, maintain neutrality, or even turn bearish.

The current EMA indicator shows that the price of Bitcoin should fluctuate between 100,000 and 110,000 dollars, and the actual trend aligns with this prediction. This makes us seriously consider: is the current market entering an accelerated declining bear market phase?

Long-term holders sold 20 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin

We need to pay special attention to the movements of long-term holders. In the past 30 days, long-term holders have sold 185,000 bitcoins, with a total value of approximately $20 billion. Typically, the behavior pattern of long-term holders is to choose to sell when prices rise, and to buy when prices consolidate, hit a bottom, or start to rebound. As the market continues to rise, they gradually exit and continue to reduce their holdings at price peaks.

Looking back at the situation in April 2022, when long-term holders sold off a large amount of Bitcoin, causing the price of Bitcoin to drop from $40,000 all the way down to $20,000, and even briefly touching a low of $15,000. This phenomenon is very noteworthy. Over the past few weeks, the price of Bitcoin has continued to decline, falling from $12,600 to the current range of $10,000 to $13,000. Meanwhile, long-term holders have not stopped selling Bitcoin.

This at least indicates that long-term holders believe the current market may decline further, and thus choose to exit the market. Whether their judgment is correct still requires further observation.

Comparing market capitalization with market value: revealing reliable signals of Bitcoin cycle changes.

The ratio of realized market capitalization to market capitalization is a key metric that we often use. In previous bear markets, this metric played an important role, successfully predicting large-scale bear markets as well as accurately forecasting similar smaller bear markets.

When this indicator is negative, it usually means that the market is in a correction phase. At this time, it is advisable for investors to exit the market, remain on the sidelines, or adopt a bearish strategy. I believe the current market is in this phase and is worth our close attention.

The momentum of the Bitcoin bull market is weakening, and the inflow of funds is gradually decreasing.

By observing further magnification, we can see more clearly that the recent downward trend of this indicator is very similar to the worst period of the market in March this year. Although Bitcoin subsequently experienced a slight rebound, it has fallen 10% from the rebound level. Therefore, it is still difficult to determine whether the market has overcome the difficulties. In fact, whether $100,000 is the lowest point of this correction is still uncertain. Based on the performance of this indicator, the market may fall below $100,000 and continue to decline, as this indicator typically signals that a deeper correction is occurring.

The current market has undergone a correction for a few weeks. However, if we look back at the market correction earlier this year, it was a prolonged adjustment lasting 2 to 3 months, rather than a correction that has lasted only about 3 weeks like it is now.

Short-term holders' cost basis drops: surrender or start from here

The realized price of short-term holders is a key indicator, currently at $112,798 (at the time of podcast recording), reflecting the average buying level of short-term holders over the past 155 days. When the Bitcoin price falls below this level, investors typically opt for stop-loss, leading to further declines in the market. This is mainly because short-term traders tend to buy in anticipation of price increases, and when the price falls below their buying price, they quickly sell off their assets. We can see that when Bitcoin fell below $113,000, the price experienced further declines, triggering a large-scale forced liquidation event in October.

In addition, on-chain data also indicates that this may be a deeper market correction. The market currently seems to have entered a bear market phase dominated by sell-offs. Sell-offs can take various forms and may last longer. Historical data shows that when short-term holders are at a loss, the price of Bitcoin tends to decline further. The market may only turn bullish when the price breaks through this level (ideally driven by strong catalysts). Otherwise, the market still faces significant downside risks. In this case, protecting capital becomes particularly important. If we want to buy at lower prices, we must sell at high levels.

Surrender risk re-emerges - even as Bitcoin rebounds

In the research reports of the past few weeks, we analyzed the market trends of Bitcoin from multiple perspectives. A closer examination revealed that during the correction period of the first quarter of this year, the relevant indicators became more negative, indicating that Bitcoin's rebound pattern is closer to a W shape rather than the traditional V shape rebound. A W-shaped rebound means that the market price experiences two bottoms and rebounds over a longer period of time, rather than a quick recovery. Based on this, we predict that Bitcoin may rebound to $110,000 before falling again.

However, from a trading perspective, this prediction may be overly idealistic, as market trends are difficult to judge accurately. We cannot determine whether the price will rebound first before falling, or if it will directly enter a downward trend. Therefore, we believe it is more reasonable to maintain a bearish stance when the price of Bitcoin is below $113,000. Unless the price breaks through this level, we are more inclined to focus on downside risks rather than attempting to capture potential upward momentum.

Speculative momentum weakens, which may indicate that the market is about to enter a consolidation phase.

On October 10, during the market correction, a massive forced liquidation event occurred for Bitcoin. At that time, former U.S. President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China at the end of the Friday trading session, while the U.S. stock index futures market was about to close, and only the Bitcoin futures market remained open. It was at this moment that the Bitcoin futures market liquidated positions worth up to $20 billion.

This indicates that when the futures traders in the market decrease, it becomes difficult for the Bitcoin price to rebound. We may be experiencing a similar situation, as we have also observed in previous market corrections that once the futures traders withdraw and unwind their long positions, it becomes exceptionally difficult for the market to rebound. This is also one of the reasons we maintain a cautious attitude. We are closely monitoring the changes in open interest (open interest), futures positions, and funding rates, all of which currently do not show bullish signals, but rather indicate that traders are adopting very cautious risk management strategies.

Long-term holders are starting to take profits - this may indicate that a consolidation period is approaching.

Coin Days Destroyed is an indicator used to track long-term Bitcoin holders. Its principle is to issue warning signals by monitoring the destroyed coin days (, which is the cumulative time ) when long-held Bitcoins are sold. When some long-term holders start selling Bitcoin, this indicator suggests that the market may face risks.

However, as the duration of the bear market extends, long-term holders often choose to continue holding rather than selling at low prices. This weakens the predictive power of the indicator during bear markets. Nevertheless, it can still provide some warning signals. I believe this is also one of the important reasons for us to maintain a cautious attitude.

Low valuation with no momentum: MVRV indicator shows that the consolidation may continue.

One of the most critical off-chain metrics is the Market Value to Realized Value, MVRV (, which is used to compare the current price of Bitcoin with the average cost basis of investors. Currently, this metric has turned negative, mainly reflecting the situation of short-term holders who bought Bitcoin in the past 155 days, rather than the performance of the entire market.

This data indicates that many investors are currently in a state of loss. When investors are in a state of loss, the market often experiences a slight correction, which may even further deepen the adjustment. This was particularly evident during the bear market from the end of 2021 to 2022. Additionally, it is worth noting that the current bull market momentum is weak. Compared to the bull market wave at the end of October 2020, the current market momentum and investor excitement are noticeably lacking. This low momentum makes the market more prone to rapid reversals, especially when investors realize they are in a state of loss. For this reason, we are always concerned that the current bull market may lose momentum prematurely.

The true average price of the market indicates that investors' profits are gradually being eroded.

The Active Investor Price Average ) True Market Mean Price ( is an important market indicator that reflects the overall buying cost of Bitcoin in the secondary market. It can be seen as the average buying price of active investors, used to analyze the cost pressure and behavioral tendencies of market participants. When investors face losses, they typically choose to sell or liquidate assets, a phenomenon that has frequently occurred at different stages of the market.

It is worth noting that since this summer, market activity has significantly decreased, and the overall trend is gradually becoming weak. This has led the market to enter a state of “hovering at a critical point.” Looking back at the period during last year's Trump election, a wave of large-scale market activity was triggered due to policy uncertainty. However, after the tariff issue was resolved in April this year, the second wave of market activity has significantly weakened. Therefore, the pace of market momentum decline is faster than expected, and investor confidence has also been somewhat affected.

Three small bull markets - and the signs of profit exhaustion they left behind

Short Term Spend Output ) is an important tool for tracking whether coins circulating on the Bitcoin network are in a profitable state. Over the past two years, Bitcoin has experienced two to three brief bull markets, but the duration of these bull markets has been relatively short, and market momentum has quickly weakened. As the market enters a downturn, we can observe a series of price rebounds, but the magnitude of these rebounds is gradually shrinking, indicating that the strength of the market recovery is declining.

From historical data, when the short-term expenditure output indicator approaches zero, it usually means that the market is close to the bottom, making it a good time to buy Bitcoin. However, this indicator has not yet reached zero, indicating that the market's short-term profitability has not been completely exhausted, so it may not be the best time to buy. Only when profitability approaches zero will the market bottom signal become more apparent. At this stage, it may be a safer strategy to remain on the sidelines or wait for clearer market signals.

Evidence of continued capitulation and weakening momentum

Short Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit ( is an important metric used to assess whether investors who have held their coins for less than 155 days are in a profitable state. This metric reflects the investment performance of short-term holders by comparing the current market value of the coins to their realized value, normalized accordingly. Current data shows that market momentum is weakening, with more signs of “capitulation” selling among investors, consistent with the current sluggish state of the market.

Comparing the market adjustments from last summer to the first quarter of this year, it can be observed that the current adjustment may last longer and the decline may be greater. The current market price still has a significant gap compared to historical highs, making it difficult for Bitcoin to achieve sustained rebounds in the short term. The market may fluctuate within a narrow range of $110,000 to $100,000. In such an environment, investors may consider generating profits by selling call options on the rise and deep out-of-the-money put options. At the same time, the next potential catalyst that may impact the market is expected to emerge after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on December 10, )FOMC(, at which point investors should closely monitor market dynamics.

The true market average price reveals the phenomenon of profit erosion.

On-chain metrics provide us with a more cautious market perspective. For example, the ratio of Bitcoin to the True Mean Price ) is calculated by dividing the Investor Cap ( by the active supply, which measures the average cost at which market participants hold their coins. Current data shows that the market momentum of short-term holders is gradually weakening, and most short-term investors are facing losses.

Overall, the average profit level of the Bitcoin network is only 25%, a figure close to MicroStrategy's Bitcoin purchase cost. Historically, when the Bitcoin price falls below the real average price, the market usually enters a deep bear market phase. The current real average price is about $82,000, which is an important dividing line between the end of the Bitcoin bull market and the beginning of the bear market. If the price falls below this level, the market may first test the key support level of $93,000. It is worth noting that during Trump's election, Bitcoin quickly rose from $68,000 to $93,000, and the trading volume in this range was low, leading to a potential “air pocket” phenomenon, where prices fluctuate sharply in this range and lack stable support. If this indicator is reached, it may trigger significant market volatility.

Currently, we are more concerned that the price of Bitcoin may fall below $100,000. According to the analysis of trend models and on-chain indicators, as long as the price of Bitcoin is below $113,000, we will maintain a bearish market outlook.

Falling to the true market average price will form support - the bear market may unfold below this.

Data further shows that the average profit of Bitcoin network investors has significantly decreased from 75% to 25%. This change is mainly due to active trading at the market peak over the past few months. Early investors )OGS( and seasoned investors have gradually sold Bitcoin to new investors, resulting in a significant rise in the market's average cost or true mean price )True Mean Price(. At the beginning of the year, the true mean price was around $50,000 to $60,000, but with the rapid increase in trading volume, this average price has climbed to higher levels.

A potential risk currently facing the market is that a large number of new investors are buying Bitcoin in the range of $100,000 to $126,000, making the market environment more fragile. These investors may be more likely to choose to sell when prices drop. For example, when the price of Bitcoin falls to $100,000, those who bought at $120,000 may quickly exit due to loss pressure, and this selling behavior may further exacerbate market instability. Additionally, the average profit level for long-term holders is only 25%, which is not very high compared to the total market investment, indicating that overall market confidence is relatively low.