The Bitcoin bear market is not over! Traders predict a drop to $50,000, falling below the ETF's cost basis.

On February 9th, Bitcoin rebounded to around $71,000, but traders remain bearish. Filbfilb, comparing to 2022, considers the 50-week EMA of $95,300 as a key level. BitBull states that Bitcoin has bottomed below $50,000, and ETF costs at $82,000 will be at a loss.

Terrifying Comparison of the 2022 Bear Market Script Repeating

Data from TradingView shows BTC/USD broke above $71,000, a 20% increase from last Friday’s 15-month low. As the weekly close approaches, Bitcoin’s price volatility intensifies, and market participants remain highly skeptical about the sustainability of the rebound. Independent analyst Filbfilb uploaded a chart on X, comparing the current BTC price trend with the 2022 bear market, but for bulls, this is not good news.

“I won’t try to sugarcoat it in any way; it just looks like that,” he commented beside a chart showing spot price versus the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) of $95,300. Such blunt statements are uncommon among crypto analysts, indicating Filbfilb’s very pessimistic view of the current situation. The 50-week EMA is an important mid-term trend indicator; when the price is below it and the EMA is in a downtrend, it typically signals a bear market.

The comparison to 2022 is very convincing. Back then, Bitcoin started declining from a high of $69,000, rebounded with a long lower wick when testing the 200-week moving average cloud in May, and many thought it was the bottom. However, weeks later, the price re-entered the cloud and eventually broke below in June, hitting a cycle low of $17,000. The current price action is eerily similar to May 2022: a long lower wick near the 200-week moving average cloud, market believing “it’s bottomed,” and the possibility of breaking down again.

Analyst Tony Severino also shares a similar view, citing multiple price indicators and concluding that a new low is almost inevitable. When multiple independent analysts arrive at the same conclusion, it often carries more weight than a single opinion. When market consensus forms, a self-fulfilling prophecy can occur: traders expect a breakdown → set protective stops → price triggers stops → more selling ensues → ultimately breaking below.

2022 vs 2026 Bear Market Comparison

Similarities: First test of the 200-week moving average cloud with a long lower wick, market misjudging it as the bottom

Price Position: Currently between support clouds of $58,000-$68,000, after collapsing through the same level in 2022

Moving Average Structure: 50-week EMA in a downtrend, price well below long-term averages

Market Sentiment: Fear index extremely low, similar to mid-2022

“Bitcoin’s final crash hasn’t happened yet,” says trader BitBull, agreeing with Filbfilb’s 2022 assessment. “The real bottom will form below $50,000, and most ETF buyers will be at a loss.” The logic here is that the true bear market bottom often occurs when the last group of steadfast holders is forced to capitulate. ETF buyers represent the “new money” entering in 2024-2025, with an average cost of $82,000. Only when this group also suffers heavy losses and is forced to sell will the market truly bottom out.

The Pain Line at $82,000 ETF Cost

According to data from monitoring resource Checkonchain, the average purchase cost of US spot Bitcoin ETFs is currently $82,000. This figure is highly significant; it represents the average cost of all institutional buying since the ETF launched in January 2024. At the current price of $71,000, ETF holders are on average at a loss of about 13.4%.

This loss state exerts dual pressure on Bitcoin’s price. First, losing institutions may reduce new buying or redeem. Second, if the price continues to fall and losses widen, risk management mechanisms may trigger forced liquidations. More importantly, $82,000 becomes a psychological barrier; only when the price recovers above this level can ETF buyers “break even,” and market sentiment can turn truly optimistic.

BitBull’s “below $50,000 is the real bottom” argument is based on the capitulation theory. He believes that only when ETF (institutional) investors are also deeply in the red and forced to admit losses will the final cleansing occur. With a cost basis of $82,000, a drop to $50,000 implies a 39% loss, which could trigger capitulation-driven selling. Historically, Bitcoin’s cycle bottoms tend to occur after most holders have suffered 40%-50% losses.

However, there are opposing views. ETF buyers in 2024-2025 differ from retail investors in 2021-2022; they are institutional investors with longer investment horizons and stronger risk tolerance. Pension funds and asset managers holding Bitcoin are based on long-term strategies and wouldn’t panic sell due to short-term losses. Additionally, the ETF structure requires time and procedures for redemptions, unlike retail investors who can liquidate instantly. This structural difference might make the “ETF capitulation” scenario less severe than expected.

The Critical Test of the 200-week Support Cloud

Caleb Franzen, founder of Cubic Analytics, stated in a recent weekend market analysis that the shadow of 2022 also looms here. “In May 2022, Bitcoin retested its 200-week moving average cloud. Bulls said, ‘That’s it, we’ve retested the long-term moving average, now we can continue higher.’” The price immediately rebounded in that zone, forming a long wick and closing above the weekly midpoint, he summarized.

“But then this rally faded… Weeks later, the price fell back into the 200-week cloud, failed to rebound, and in June 2022, broke through the cloud. What are we seeing now? This is the first retest of the 200-week cloud with a long wick.” This historical repetition analysis is very convincing because of the similarity in technical patterns and market psychology.

They form a support zone between $58,000 and $68,000, the “cloud.” The 200-week SMA and EMA are the most important long-term technical indicators for Bitcoin; historically, they have provided the last line of defense in bear markets. The area between them is called the “cloud,” which often offers strong support. If Bitcoin falls into the cloud but holds the lower boundary, it often signals the end of the bear market. But if the cloud is broken convincingly, it indicates deeper declines.

Franzen notes that the market may not “perfectly” replicate previous bear markets. “The reality is, no one knows what will happen next,” he admits. This cautious stance is typical of professional analysts, acknowledging the limitations of historical comparisons. The macro environment in 2026 differs significantly from 2022: ETFs are already launched, institutional adoption is deeper, the Trump administration was crypto-friendly, but interest rate environments may be less favorable. These differences could prevent a full replay of history.

From a probabilistic perspective, historical comparisons offer possibilities, not certainties. If the current trend is 80% similar to 2022, then the probability of a breakdown could also be around 80%. But there’s still a 20% chance of a different outcome. For risk management, one should prepare for the 80% breakdown scenario but also leave room for the 20% reversal.

For investors, the current Bitcoin bear market is highly uncertain. Technical analysts see the shadow of 2022 and an imminent breakdown, while fundamentals see ETF inflows and long-term institutional adoption. The truth may lie between both, and the market will reveal the answer in the coming weeks. If Bitcoin can hold the lower boundary of the $58,000 cloud and retake $82,000, the bear market may be over. But if it breaks below the cloud and tests $50,000, traders’ pessimistic predictions could come true.