2026 tax refunds are set to expand significantly — here's what that could mean for markets and the economy. Larger returns flowing into households typically boost consumer spending and liquidity. For the crypto space, this matters more than most realize. When retail investors get bigger payouts, some portion inevitably finds its way into digital assets. It's a potential tailwind for market activity in the first half of 2026. But there's another angle worth considering: increased disposable income could either fuel risk appetite or get locked into traditional savings, depending on where we are in the economic cycle. Either way, savvy traders are already factoring this into their outlook. The macro environment keeps shaping where capital flows, and this policy shift deserves attention.