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The December CPI data just released is completely in line with expectations. What does this mean for the market? Simply put, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates in January is almost nonexistent – according to analysts, the probability is only about 5%.
When both the overall CPI and core CPI (excluding energy and food prices) meet forecasts, the market receives a clear signal: inflation is gradually cooling down, but not enough for the Fed to take action. This report not only reinforces confidence in price control measures but also directly impacts expectations for monetary policy in the coming months.
Given the current situation, traders need to closely monitor upcoming economic data to make informed investment decisions.