Gate News 消息，美国预测市场平台 Kalshi 在与新泽西州的法律争议中取得关键进展。第三巡回上诉法院以2比1裁定，Kalshi 可继续在该州提供体育相关合约，核心理由是相关交易属于联邦监管范畴，由美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）拥有专属管辖权。
此次判决的争议焦点在于，预测市场合约是否应被视为博彩行为。新泽西州主张其博彩法规适用于所有体育相关交易，但法院多数意见认为，Kalshi 提供的产品符合“互换交易”定义，属于联邦商品法监管范围，而非传统意义上的赌博活动。
法院进一步指出，这类合约与经济结果存在关联，满足联邦法律对金融衍生品的界定标准。即使持反对意见的法官，也认可这些预测市场合约具备互换交易特征。基于此，州级执法若介入，将与现行联邦监管体系发生冲突。
在程序层面，法院维持对新泽西州的初步禁令，认定 Kalshi 已证明其胜诉可能性，并面临潜在的不可逆损害。这意味着，在案件最终裁决前，州监管机构暂无法依据博彩法限制其运营。
值得关注的是，该案被视为美国首次由联邦巡回法院直接审理预测市场合法性的标志性案件。随着预测市场在政治、经济及地缘事件中的应用扩大，其监管边界正受到更严格审视。此前，Kalshi 还因涉及国际冲突相关合约而面临诉讼压力。
此次裁决凸显出美国联邦与州监管权之间的张力，同时也为预测市场行业提供了阶段性利好信号。未来，相关监管框架如何统一，仍将成为市场关注重点。
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