ETH 10-minute (10m) chart, February 7 05:40 to February 8 06:30 This market movement is a typical "Broad Bull Channel" pattern. Under the 30% filtering mechanism of indicator B, the signals are highly rhythmic: 1. Deep Pullback and Bullish Rebound (2.7 05:40 - 2.7 20:00) Bottoming and Rebound: The market initially experienced a significant correction, with the lowest point near 2010. Note around 15:30, a very long lower shadow bearish candle appeared, triggering tB (despite being a bearish candle, its large displacement started a wave). V-turn Explosion: Around 20:00, the market saw a large-bodied CX (Climax) bar. Analysis: This bar instantly broke through the 20 EMA and several short-term resistance lines, indicating a shift from bearish dominance to bullish dominance. 2. Staircase-like Uptrend (2.7 20:00 - 2.8 04:00) Broad Channel Phase: After the CX explosion, the market did not crash immediately but entered an upward-sloping broad channel. 3. High-level Stagnation and Fake Breakout (2.8 04:00 - 2.8 06:30) Range Top Resistance: Price moved near the 2100 level. Note around 05:00, a red-labeled tB (bearish trend bar) appeared, indicating increased selling pressure at high levels. Current Convergence: On the rightmost part of the chart, the price retreated again near the 20 EMA, with the real body noticeably smaller. Current Key Battle Points: Support levels: 20 EMA (around 2088) and the lower boundary of the channel. Resistance level: 2100 - 2121 (1.618 Fibonacci level). Operational Advice: The 10-minute chart is currently oscillating at the top of the upward channel. Since a clear red tB suppression appeared at 05:40, if no bullish candle surpassing the recent median appears next, the price is likely to test the lower boundary of the channel (around 2040).

#EthereumL2Outlook Ethereum Layer-2 Outlook — February 2026 Scaling Triumphs, Fragmentation Fears, and the Crossroads Ahead As Ethereum enters February 2026, its Layer-2 (L2) ecosystem stands at a paradoxical juncture. Scaling successes have exceeded early expectations, yet fragmentation, liquidity silos, and long-term cohesion are emerging as critical concerns. Ethereum mainnet fees remain high for everyday use, typically ranging from $2–$8 even during quiet periods. In contrast, the collective L2 ecosystem now handles roughly 15–25× more daily transactions than Layer-1, with fees usually between $0.05–$0.20. While this demonstrates that Ethereum is scaling in real time, the path forward involves trade-offs between speed, cost, and cohesion. 📊 Key Metrics and Market Leaders (Early 2026) Total L2 TVL: ~$48–52 billion, ~180% YoY growth Daily L2 transactions: 45–65 million vs. 1.1–1.4 million on Layer-1 Market share: Arbitrum One: 38–42%, strong DeFi liquidity and gaming ecosystem Base: 22–26%, fueled by Coinbase-backed adoption Optimism: 12–15%, retroactive public goods funding model zkSync Era & Polygon zkEVM: steadily gaining with advancing zero-knowledge tech Smaller ecosystems: Blast, Scroll, Linea, Starknet — growing niche presence ✅ Bright Spots Rollup Technology Maturation Optimistic and zk rollups are delivering fast, low-cost transactions secured by Ethereum. EIP-4844 (proto-danksharding) and alternative data availability layers (Celestia, EigenDA, Avail) have reduced calldata costs dramatically since mid-2025. Improved User Experience Account abstraction (ERC-4337), paymasters, gas sponsorships, and chain-agnostic wallets (Zerion, Rabby, Ambire) simplify onboarding. Fiat on-ramps via Coinbase, Ramp, and MoonPay further reduce friction, particularly on Base and Arbitrum. Application-Level Growth Low fees support DeFi and consumer apps: Uniswap v4 hooks, multi-L2 Aave deployments, GMX-style perpetual DEXs, Hyperliquid-inspired trading platforms, social apps, and on-chain gaming. Negligible transaction costs encourage experimentation and usage. ⚠️ Core Risk: Fragmentation Despite these successes, Ethereum L2s are increasingly acting like semi-independent chains rather than a unified layer. Key challenges include: Liquidity fragmentation: Capital spread across multiple chains and bridges increases friction. Sequencer centralization: Most L2s still rely on single sequencers; full decentralization remains theoretical. Interoperability gaps: Bridges (Hop, Across, Synapse, LayerZero) remain attack surfaces. Value accrual uncertainty: L2 tokens often trade at steep discounts relative to TVL or fees, raising questions about who captures Ethereum’s economic upside. 🔮 Possible 2026 Trajectories Cohesive Superchain Model (Optimistic Scenario): Shared standards (ERC-7683), chain abstraction, and liquidity solvers create a connected ecosystem. L1 becomes primarily settlement/data layer; L2s feel like neighborhoods in one Ethereum city. Multi-Chain Base Case: Dominant L2s (Arbitrum, Base, one zk-based chain) capture 70–80% of activity. Smaller chains survive in niches (gaming, privacy, AI). Fees remain low on L2s but structurally higher on L1; bridge UX improves without being seamless. Fragmentation Backlash (Less Favorable): Users may grow frustrated managing multiple chains and balances. Capital concentrates on 2–3 dominant L2s, while others lose TVL and relevance. Ethereum’s rollup narrative may face competition from Solana, Sui, Aptos, or modular chains. 📌 Bottom Line Ethereum’s Layer-2 scaling experiment is working better than most skeptics expected. Throughput is rising, fees have fallen, and user adoption is accelerating. The key question for 2026: Can Ethereum transition from fast, fragmented chains into a cohesive, user-centric network that feels like one Ethereum rather than many separate L2s? Investors and developers should watch: Adoption of chain-abstraction wallets Progress toward shared sequencers and rollup collaborations TVL and user concentration trends Interoperability infrastructure breakthroughs Layer-2 scaling is successful in terms of speed and cost efficiency, but true unification remains the ultimate test for Ethereum’s long-term L2 strategy.

ETH 1 Hour (1H) Chart February 6 📉 Stage One: Rapid V Reversal Start (2.6 08:00 - 2.7 01:00) Spike: The market started with an extreme low point at 1740 and rebounded with increased volume. Urgency (Sense of Urgency): During this rally, almost no candlesticks had real bodies below 30%, indicating very pure bullish strength. The price quickly broke above the 20 EMA, completing the transition from a "bearish trend" to a "bullish breakout." From 08:00 on the 8th to 05:00 on the 8th 📊 Stage Two: Pullback Confirmation and Channel Formation (2.7 01:00 - 2.7 08:00) EMA Support Validated: The price experienced a standard pullback to around 1970, touching the 20 EMA, then triggered tB again. 🧱 Stage Three: High-Level Horizontal Range (2.7 08:00 - 2.8 05:00) Trading Range (TR) Appears: The price entered a rectangular box marked with a blue frame in the chart (2050 - 2090). Barbed Wire (Barbed Wire) Structure, representing a balance between bulls and bears, not a reliable breakout indicator. 💡 Core Observation and Future Analysis Current State: Tight Balance. The price is currently (around 05:00 on 2.8) moving sideways along the 20 EMA. **"Consolidation"**. Breakout Direction Bullish Breakout: If a candlestick closes above 2100 with a real body > 50%, triggering tB, then the second wave of upward movement (Measured Move) starting from 1740 will target 2200. Bearish Breakout: If the price falls below the lower boundary of the blue box (2050) and closes below the EMA, the rebound momentum at the 1H level will be considered exhausted.