1. Consensus and Ecosystem Continually Marginalized, Long-term Value Support Weak As a Bitcoin fork, BCH's core positioning is "large blocks, low-fee payment coin," but it faces long-term issues of consensus loss and ecosystem shrinkage. On-chain activity, developer numbers, and application adoption are far below mainstream assets like BTC and ETH. Market share continues to decline, accounting for only about 0.38% of the crypto market. Lacking essential use cases and long-term capital accumulation, its price is easily influenced by market sentiment, making independent upward movement difficult. 2. Hash Power and Security Disadvantages, Black Swan Risks Suppress Valuation BCH uses PoW but has only a small fraction of BTC's total hash power. Risks of 51% attacks and double spending are significantly higher, with security far below leading coins. If market panic spreads, hash power fleeing will further weaken network security, becoming a bearish logic that suppresses valuation potential. 3. Capital Siphoning Effect, Passive Follower, Not Leading Crypto market funds are highly concentrated in BTC, ETH, and main Layer2 solutions. BCH is a fringe asset lacking institutional investment and long-term holdings. During market pullbacks, funds tend to withdraw from BCH for safety, causing its decline to be steeper than the market. During rebounds, its rebound strength is weak and short-lived, showing a "fast down, slow up" pattern, suitable for short-term bearish strategies. 4. Technical Weakness, Key Support Easily Broken As of February 2026, BCH's technical outlook shows clear bearish signals: price remains below key moving averages, RSI in weak zone, MACD divergence persists. The core support levels of $560–$570 have been repeatedly pressured. Once broken, it can trigger stop-loss and automated sell-offs, causing rapid drops below $550 and $520, with a clear short-term downtrend. 5. Derivatives Leverage Crowded, Bearish Win Rate Temporarily High Open interest in BCH derivatives is high, with retail longs heavily leveraged. Market sentiment is optimistic but lacks fundamentals support. Small price declines can trigger chain reactions of long liquidations, accelerating price drops and creating a "stampede" effect, providing profit opportunities for short sellers. II. Core Catalysts for Shorting BCH (Potential Bearish Factors) 1. Global Regulatory Tightening Countries are increasing regulation on cryptocurrencies, especially PoW coins and non-mainstream forks. This will directly reduce BCH liquidity and trading demand, accelerating price declines. 2. Systemic Market Risks If Bitcoin breaks key support levels or US stocks and crypto markets weaken together, BCH, as a high-volatility fringe asset, will lead declines, falling much more than mainstream coins. 3. Lack of Fundamental Progress BCH's technological upgrades, ecosystem development, and partnerships are below expectations. No new applications, institutional collaborations, or capital inflows, leading to a lack of valuation support and continued price decline. III. Critical Risks of Shorting BCH (Must Be Cautious) 1. Policy and Legal Risks (Highest Priority) China fully bans virtual currency trading, derivatives, and shorting activities. Participating in overseas platforms risks fund withdrawal issues, platform shutdowns, account freezes, and legal liabilities. Capital safety is not guaranteed. 2. Unlimited Loss Risk, High Probability of Liquidation Shorting has limited gains but unlimited losses. BCH's volatility and sudden positive news (forks, partnerships, market rebounds) can trigger short squeezes, causing rapid price surges and high leverage liquidations, wiping out capital. 3. Liquidity Risks, Slippage, and Price Gaps BCH's depth is much lower than BTC, with thin order books and low trading volume. Short positions may face large slippage during closing. Market "price gaps" can trigger forced liquidations, leading to passive losses. 4. Funding Rates and Holding Costs Perpetual contracts require continuous funding payments. Long-term holding erodes profits, and even if the direction is correct, holding costs can turn gains into losses. IV. Rational Perspective: Not Recommended to Short BCH 1. Non-mainstream coins are highly volatile and easily manipulated; retail shorting success rates are very low. 2. High leverage + high volatility + low liquidity + policy risks make it essentially speculative gambling rather than rational investing. 3. China's regulations explicitly prohibit participation; engaging in such activities is illegal, with no legal protection for assets or personal rights. Summary From market structure, fundamentals, and technical analysis, there is a clear short-term shorting logic for BCH. Its fringe asset status, consensus loss, weak hash power, and crowded leverage are core bearish reasons. However, policy risks, unlimited loss potential, and liquidity risks outweigh potential gains, making it unnecessary for ordinary investors to participate. Reiterating: Cryptocurrency trading is not legally protected. Do not engage in any illegal virtual currency buying, selling, derivatives, or shorting activities. Stay compliant, avoid crypto speculation. I can help you condense this shorting logic into a one-page key points summary for quick reference. Would you like that?

Any units and individuals investing in virtual currencies, real-world asset tokens, and related financial products do so at their own risk. A few days ago, the People's Bank of China, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the Financial Regulatory Authority, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and eight other departments jointly issued the "Notice on Further Preventing and Disposing of Risks Related to Virtual Currencies and Other Matters." I have summarized four key points for everyone: Definition, Ban, Responsibility, and Rectification. 1️⃣. Definition: Virtual currencies are illegal financial activities • Legal status: Virtual currencies (such as Bitcoin, Ethereum) do not have legal tender status and cannot be used as currency for circulation. • Business nature: Conducting virtual currency exchange, trading, issuance, and related activities within the country are all illegal financial activities, strictly prohibited and to be eradicated. 2️⃣. Ban: Completely cut off the service chain • Financial institutions: Must not provide account opening, fund transfer, clearing, and settlement services, nor issue related financial products. • Internet companies: Must not provide online business venues, marketing, paid traffic, and other services. • Overseas services: Overseas entities must not illegally provide virtual currency services within the country. 3️⃣. Responsibility: Investment losses are at your own risk • Risk assumption: Any units and individuals investing in virtual currencies and related products do so at their own risk. • Legal consequences: Relevant civil legal actions may be invalid, and suspected disruption of financial order will be prosecuted according to law. 4️⃣. Rectification: Crack down on mining and tokenization • Mining activities: New virtual currency "mining" projects are strictly prohibited, and the sale of "mining machines" is forbidden. • Tokenization: Without approval, real-world asset tokenization activities are not allowed. Based on the above notice, opening up cryptocurrency services domestically still seems very far off. Most people’s understanding of cryptocurrencies is still associated with scams, gray industries, and gambling. Therefore, whether making money or losing money in the crypto space, don’t draw too much attention. It’s easy to attract jealousy, and if someone reports you for not being liked, it could cause trouble—at best, a lot of hassle, and at worst, imprisonment.

📉The last three times Ethereum $ETH dipped below the 0.80 Pricing Band, it marked a market bottom. With the price dropping below $1,959, that signal is flashing again