3月2日消息，比特币在2月份下跌近15%，市场对3月份反弹抱有期待，但多位分析师指出，目前投资者的损失尚未达到最大水平，价格仍有下行空间。Alphractal数据显示，比特币夏普比率已跌至此前周期底部水平，这意味着投资者可在较低风险下布局，但信号尚未完全成形，需要耐心等待。创始人Joao Wedson表示，年度夏普比率至少出现五到七次才能确认底部，而在此期间，比特币可能继续下跌至48,000至52,000美元区间，这被视为潜在的策略性建仓机会。
CryptoQuant分析师Axel Adler Jr指出，比特币未实现亏损率已超过39%，显示大部分投资者处于亏损状态，但仍未达到历史触底水平，过去周期的触底比例曾超过60%。这一观察表明，全面崩盘之前仍可能有进一步下跌的风险。与此同时，分析师CW表示，交易所巨鲸比例已创新高，散户被挤出市场，主导交易的是规模更大、经验更丰富的参与者，这也预示价格可能接近底部，但市场波动仍需警惕。
当前全球地缘政治局势紧张，美国、以色列和伊朗之间冲突升级，使市场的不确定性加剧。投资者在布局比特币时需兼顾策略性和风险管理，尤其是在高波动性时期。综合技术指标和链上数据来看，3月份或是比特币形成阶段性底部的关键窗口期，同时也是长期投资者优化仓位的良机。
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