Gate News message, April 28 — Bitcoin’s rise toward $80,000 is accompanied by a significant drop in trading volume and deeply negative funding rates, raising questions about the sustainability of the rally, according to Markus Thielen, research head at 10x Research.
Bitcoin’s weekly trading volume has fallen 17% below average, while Ethereum’s volume declined 20%. Funding rates dropped 6.8% to the third percentile, and trading volume fell 33% to the fourth percentile. Bitcoin ETFs have recorded nine consecutive days of net inflows, with April inflows totaling $2.5 billion. Bitcoin’s market dominance rose to 60%, while Ethereum’s trading volume plummeted over 50%. Options market volatility has declined to the bottom quartile of historical ranges.
Thielen notes that the current rally is primarily driven by spot purchases or short covering rather than leveraged long speculation. The market has transitioned from a more active trading environment to one where most participants are sidelined. Low funding rates and reduced trading volume historically reflect hesitation rather than momentum. However, with limited leveraged long positions, downside liquidation risk has diminished. Should a catalyst emerge, near-term risk-reward asymmetry tilts toward the upside.
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