China International Capital Corporation: The Federal Reserve hinted that interest rates could have been cut earlier if it weren't for tariff risks.

On March 20, the CICC Research Report said that the word most emphasized by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the meeting was “uncertainty”, emphasizing that a considerable part of the variables came from the arbitrariness of tariff policy. Overall, weaker growth (but less recessionary pressures) and rising inflation risks (mainly tariff disruptions) offset each other, keeping the Fed’s expectations for rate cuts for the full year unchanged. This may also imply two meanings: first, if it were not for the tariff risk, the Fed would have cut interest rates long ago; Second, if tariffs land sharply, the Fed will be forced to postpone the timing of interest rate cuts, so it is still a wait-and-see approach at present.