Investment bank: Expects European Central Bank to stay put, emphasizes data dependence

According to Jinshi data on July 17, Nordea Bank of Northern Europe predicts that the European Central Bank will maintain the interest rate unchanged in July and wait for confirmation that inflation continues to approach the target. It is expected that President Lagarde will once again emphasize that the European Central Bank will rely on data and follow the decision-making process of sequential meetings, without pre-committing to a specific interest rate path. Preliminary data in June showed a further decline in overall inflation, while core HICP (harmonized CPI) remained stable. Although recruitment information shows that wage pressures have decreased significantly, wage growth remains unstable. Analysts believe that the European Central Bank will wait until September to cut interest rates again, and the information at the July meeting is expected to support this point.