Bitunix Analyst: Fed Research Report - Third-party Supply Chain Becomes a New Fault Line in Financial Stability, Systemic Risk Enters a Quantifiable Stage

BlockBeats news, on November 27, according to the latest research released by the Fed, there is a high concentration risk at the “third-party service provider” level between the top 100 banks and 100 non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) in the United States. Once key cloud, payment, or core IT service providers experience paralysis, it will quickly evolve into a systemic event across markets. The model shows that in extreme scenarios, the 99.9% tail losses caused by systemic incidents can far exceed the normal operational risks, with operational disruptions becoming a major source of losses rather than traditional credit events. From a macro-financial perspective, this study first quantitatively confirms that “digital infrastructure failure” itself can trigger a financial crisis, rather than being just an ancillary risk. When key third-party nodes fail, it will simultaneously impact payment clearing, liquidity allocation, credit transmission, and risk hedging mechanisms, temporarily boosting dollar demand, compressing global dollar liquidity, and causing credit spreads and volatility to jump sharply. Although banks have lower nominal exposures than non-bank institutions, their extreme losses relative to revenue are even greater, indicating that the vulnerability of large traditional financial systems to tail risks has been long underestimated by the market. The crypto market is more sensitive to such “functional risks,” as exchanges, wallets, custodians, oracles, and settlement layers heavily rely on cloud and third-party authorized services. Once a regional or vendor-level disruption occurs, it can easily lead to chain clearing and liquidity vacuum. Historical experience shows that such non-price shocks often lead to short-term leveraged funds being passively unwound, with volatility sharply amplified. The short-term Bitcoin structural support will backtest high-leverage dense areas, and if the liquidity below is penetrated, one must beware of the risk of “liquidity spiral decline.” Bitunix analysts: The core significance of this report is that the market is transitioning from “financial risk pricing” to a new stage of “infrastructure risk pricing.” Future capital allocation will not only consider interest rates and growth but will also simultaneously assess the stability of system operations and supply chain concentration. Risk appetite will be more event-driven, and true structural opportunities will emerge when resilient assets and decentralized infrastructure values are re-priced.