Real Vision founder: After the U.S. government opens its doors, the market will welcome a series of Favourable Information regarding liquidity.

The Fed announced the end of QT and in conjunction with the Treasury's massive spending, market research firm Real Vision's founder Raoul Pal predicts that global liquidity will surge, the dollar will face pressure, and risk assets will encounter a critical turning point. (Background: Bitcoin plummeted by $5,000 overnight to $98,000! The probability of a rate cut in December has drastically decreased, Nvidia fell over 3% and tech stocks plummeted.) (Context: White House chief economic advisor Hassett expects Q4 GDP to drop by 1.5%, with the government shutdown of 43 days having severely impacted the U.S. economy.) As Wall Street trembled from yesterday's big dump, former Goldman Sachs strategist Raoul Pal directly posted: Now that the U.S. government has reopened, what’s next? It is anticipated that in a few days, TGA (Treasury General Account) spending will begin to significantly increase market liquidity and may continue for several months. Clearly, quantitative tightening (QT) will end in December, and the balance sheet will gradually rise. The dollar is expected to weaken again. The key next step is to avoid a year-end liquidity squeeze. Several 'temporary' measures to inject liquidity are expected, among which Term Funding and SRF (Standing Repo Facility) operations are the most likely. These measures will ultimately evolve into an urgent adjustment to SLR (Supplementary Leverage Ratio), allowing banks to absorb more bond issuance and re-leverage their balance sheets. This is a large 'liquidity rocket launcher' that is expected to emerge in Q1. Adjustments to SLR should lower interest rates since banks will buy more bonds. The CLARITY Act (Crypto Assets Regulatory Clarity Act) is also expected to begin entering the final drafting stage. There will also be stimulative payments and fiscal boosts from the so-called Big Beautiful Bill. China will continue to expand its balance sheet; Europe will increase fiscal stimulus or additional spending. Debt must be extended, and the government hopes to heat up the economy to high levels before the midterm elections. This is the 'liquidity flood'… the seasoning (market's momentum) must continue to flow. He bets that the policy shifts of the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve will push the global capital market towards a new round of liquidity peaks. Key turning point: The TGA drawdown ends. The U.S. government shutdown in October 2025 allowed the market to experience a liquidity vacuum early. The Treasury stopped spending while taxing and issuing bonds, and the Treasury's total account (TGA) balance instantly swelled from $800 billion to over $1 trillion, with about $700 billion being drained from the market, equivalent to forming a financial black hole within a month. With Congress passing a temporary funding bill in early November, these funds will flow back in phases over the 'next few months', with an estimated $250 billion to $350 billion in cash expected to re-enter the money market. QT comes to an end, and reserves rise again. Another force comes from the Federal Reserve. The post-meeting statement in November confirmed that the three-year quantitative tightening (QT) will conclude on December 1, at which point maturing securities will no longer be passively reduced but will be reinvested to maintain bank system reserves. The economic data available to decision-makers during the closure period is limited, and there are concerns over a widening dollar scarcity at the front end, hence the choice to prioritize stabilizing liquidity. Raoul Pal believes that when TGA spending and the exit of QT overlap, the market will simultaneously welcome a net injection from both fiscal and monetary channels. $10 trillion debt extension. While short-term funds can alleviate pressure, the real support for mid-term liquidity is the U.S. government's $10 trillion debt extension. To ensure smooth bond refinancing, U.S. authorities must maintain low volatility and high liquidity. The GMI liquidity index predicts a rebound to $135 trillion in 2025, and is expected to surge to $170 trillion in 2026. Moreover, U.S. decision-makers still hold temporary windows such as the Standing Repo Facility (SRF). In September of last year, the daily usage of SRF reached $18.5 billion, indicating that once the funding chain tightens, this channel can quickly replenish liquidity. Dollar pressure and opportunities for risk assets. The supply side is warming up, while the dollar faces multiple headwinds. The dollar index has given back about 12% in the first half of 2025, marking the largest drop since 1973. The Federal Reserve lowered the policy interest rate to the range of 3.75% – 4% in November, with interest rate differentials converging; the simultaneous decline in government bond yields has also weakened the dollar's attractiveness. As QT drops to zero and reserves rise, the forces increasing the money supply may continue this devaluation trend. This creates a favorable environment for risk assets, especially cryptocurrencies; during the shutdown, Bitcoin and Ether were briefly under pressure, but after the end of quantitative tightening, the concept of 'free liquidity' has regained market favor, which is what the author hopes for. Related reports: Crypto Destruction at Midnight: Liquidity Crisis, Small Coins Soar and Plummet. The U.S. government shutdown lasted 35 days, setting a 'longest record', with liquidity drained causing Bitcoin and U.S. stocks to plummet. <Real Vision Founder: After the U.S. government reopening, the market will welcome a series of liquidity favorable information> This article was first published in BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media.