XRP Price Prediction: ETF Listing and Government Shutdown Ending Soon, Can the $3 Target Be Achieved?

On November 10, 2025, XRP surged 6.65% to $2.5243, breaking through a key resistance level and accumulating over 10% gains for two consecutive days, mainly driven by expectations that Canary Capital’s XRP spot ETF may list for trading on November 13. The U.S. Senate passed the government reauthorization bill on November 9, and the Treasury Department also approved crypto ETF pledge guidelines, together boosting market sentiment.

Technical analysis indicates XRP needs to break above the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA) at $2.5644–$2.5846 to start a rally toward $3.00. Progress on BlackRock’s application for the iShares XRP Trust and Ripple’s banking license will be key catalysts moving forward.

ETF Launch Progress and Regulatory Breakthroughs

The launch process for the XRP spot ETF made decisive progress in the second week of November. Canary Capital’s amended S-1 form, submitted in October, has removed the “delayed correction” clause, suggesting that its XRP spot ETF could begin trading after the 20-day waiting period ends on November 13, making it the first pure XRP spot ETF in the U.S. This development aligns closely with the end of the government shutdown—after the Senate’s procedural vote on November 9, the bill is expected to be sent to the House on November 10, with government reopening anticipated before the weekend.

Nate Geraci, President of NovaDius Wealth Management, stated: “End of government shutdown = opening of the spot crypto ETF gate… Also, we may see the first ‘Section 33’ spot XRP ETF listed this week.”

Additionally, the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced ETF pledge guidelines that provide clearer compliance pathways for institutional investors. Consensys lawyer Bill Hughes noted that this safe harbor rule “eliminates major legal barriers for fund sponsors, custodians, and asset managers to incorporate pledge yields into regulated investment products.”

Technical Breakthroughs and Key Price Levels

XRP’s strong performance on November 10 successfully reclaimed the $2.50 level but remains below the 50-day EMA ($2.5644) and 200-day EMA ($2.5846), indicating the medium-term trend has not fully turned bullish. The daily chart shows XRP has been trading within a downtrend channel since late September, repeatedly failing to break above the upper trendline, forming lower highs and lows.

However, the current price stabilizing at support around $2.2330 and forming a cup-and-handle pattern suggests a potential reversal—this pattern’s bottom indicates diminishing selling pressure, and the handle consolidation hints at a buildup before a breakout. Technical indicators show mixed signals: the Parabolic SAR below the price ($0.1881) confirms short-term bullish control, MACD approaching a bullish crossover suggests momentum is building, but volume has yet to significantly increase, raising caution. A breakout above $2.62 resistance could target key levels at $2.80 and $3.00 psychologically.

XRP Bull-Bear Catalysts Key Data

Potential positives: government reactivation, XRP ETF listing, BlackRock’s iShares trust application, Ripple’s banking license

Potential negatives: government reshutdown, Senate opposition to crypto legislation, SWIFT maintaining market share

Key technical levels: support at $2.35/$2.20/$2.00, resistance at $2.62/$2.80/$3.00

EMA resistance: 50-day at $2.5644, 200-day at $2.5846

Recent gains: Nov 10 +6.65%, Nov 9 +3.48%

Market Structure Legislation and Policy Environment

Beyond ETF developments, the progress of the Market Structure Act in Congress provides a broader macro backdrop for XRP. The Senate Agriculture Committee released a bipartisan draft discussion on crypto market structure on November 10, following the House’s passage of a similar bill on July 17. House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill said: “We made progress on digital asset market structure in September and October. The CLARITY Act, supported by 78 House Democrats in July, is now under intense review in the Senate… They are making strong progress, and I hope we can complete this work in the coming days.”

Historical data shows that when the House passed the Market Structure Act in July, XRP experienced a single-day surge of 14.69%, indicating high sensitivity to legislative progress. Meanwhile, the pro-crypto stance of the Trump administration is reshaping the regulatory environment—although the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple has not fully concluded, key disputes have been resolved, and the OCC’s review of Ripple’s banking license could become the next regulatory milestone.

Risk Factors and Scenario Analysis

Despite short-term technical and fundamental improvements, XRP investors should remain cautious of several risks. In a bearish scenario, if BlackRock clarifies that it has no plans to launch an XRP spot ETF or if the government reactivation faces unexpected delays, the price could fall back to test support at $2.35. More severe risks involve legislative setbacks—if the Senate ultimately rejects the Market Structure Act or if the OCC delays Ripple’s banking license approval, regulatory uncertainty could reignite.

On-chain data shows increased inflows to exchanges recently, indicating some holders may be reducing positions on rebounds. Futures funding rates are not yet extreme, but a high proportion of longs raises liquidation risks.

Conversely, a bullish scenario requires multiple catalysts: smooth government reactivation leading to more ETF listings; major firms announcing XRP holdings as treasury reserves; Ripple obtaining a banking license, further integrating it into mainstream finance. Under this ideal scenario, XRP could break above $2.62 first and then challenge the $3.00 level.

Trading Strategies and Position Management

Given XRP’s unique market environment, investors might consider two approaches. Short-term traders should monitor the November 13 ETF listing outcome. If Canary XRP ETF begins trading as expected with daily inflows exceeding $100 million, a breakout above $2.58 (200-day EMA) could be an entry point, targeting $2.75–$2.85 with a stop-loss below $2.45.

Long-term investors should adopt a phased accumulation strategy, gradually building a core position in the $2.35–$2.50 range, while reserving some funds for potential dips to $2.20 support. Due to XRP’s higher volatility compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum, it’s advisable to limit its allocation to 8–12% of the portfolio and consider diversifying into other tokens benefiting from clearer regulation (e.g., SOL, ADA). Options traders might buy December call options with strike prices around $2.80–$3.00 to capitalize on implied volatility expansion driven by upcoming catalysts.

Conclusion

XRP’s breakthrough of key resistance levels ahead of ETF listing reflects market optimism about regulatory turning points. The end of the government shutdown, pledge guidelines, and progress on the Market Structure Act create a rare confluence of positive factors. The technical cup-and-handle pattern combined with policy breakthroughs suggests that if $2.62 resistance is broken, the $3.00 target could come into view. However, legislative uncertainties and institutional adoption remain risks, so investors should manage risk carefully while pursuing upside potential.