Institutional confidence shaken? Bitcoin ETF outflows reach $2 billion, and BTC falling below $100,000 could trigger a "surrender sell-off."

Against the backdrop of weakening institutional demand, Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows have totaled approximately $2 billion over the past seven days. This exerts significant pressure on Bitcoin’s price and tests investors’ confidence in the key psychological support level of $100,000. The large-scale withdrawal of ETF funds reflects risk-averse sentiment amid macroeconomic uncertainty. If BTC fails to hold above $100,000, the proportion of “profit-supplying” supply may further decline, increasing the risk of a capitulation sell-off, with prices potentially dropping to $95,000.

Accelerating ETF Outflows: A Signal of Diminishing Institutional Demand

Bitcoin’s price is struggling to stay above $100,000, marking one of the weakest phases in recent months. The spot Bitcoin ETF, once seen as a bullish catalyst, now appears to be amplifying market pressure. Recent data shows ETF outflows are intensifying Bitcoin’s downward trend and shaking investor confidence.

• Large-scale fund withdrawals: The spot Bitcoin ETF reported approximately $2 billion in net outflows over the past week, one of the steepest weekly outflows since its launch.
• Macro impact: This redemption wave highlights broader macroeconomic uncertainties negatively affecting institutional sentiment, especially amid rising risk aversion and increasing government bond yields.

Ongoing capital outflows indicate investors are opting for de-risking rather than increasing exposure. If this pattern continues, liquidity pressures on the sell side will accelerate, reinforcing the downward momentum.

On-Chain Risk Warning: “Supply in Profit” Ratio Approaching Critical Threshold

On-chain indicators reveal the market is nearing a key risk threshold. Near the $100,000 price level, the “Supply in Profit” ratio for Bitcoin has fallen to approximately 71%.

This ratio positions the market at the lower end of the typical 70%–90% equilibrium range during mid-cycle slowdowns. At this stage, markets usually consolidate before a recovery, but if new demand fails to emerge, further declines remain highly probable.

A higher proportion of supply entering loss territory would significantly increase the likelihood of capitulation selling. Such “capitulation” could turn the current correction into a deeper bear market phase similar to previous cycles. For a sustainable rebound, Bitcoin must attract new capital inflows and maintain healthy exchange balances in the coming weeks.

Price Support Levels and the Potential for a Crash: A Game of Risk

As of writing, Bitcoin’s trading price is $101,274, barely above the psychological support level of $100,000. Falling below this level could trigger panic selling among retail traders.

• Downside risk: If ETF outflows and bearish sentiment persist, Bitcoin could break below $100,000 and test support at $98,000. Accelerated selling might push the king of cryptocurrencies further down to $95,000 or lower.
• Rebound potential: However, if lower prices attract new capital inflows, BTC could rebound to $105,000 and target resistance at $110,000. Recapturing this resistance would signal a market recovery and overturn the current bearish outlook.

Conclusion

The $2 billion ETF outflow directly reflects fragile institutional confidence and rising risk-averse market sentiment. Bitcoin’s struggle around the $100,000 level embodies a fierce battle between short-term selling pressure and long-term confidence accumulation. The warning signals from indicators like “Supply in Profit” remind investors that failure to defend key support levels could significantly increase the risk of market crashes and deep corrections.