XRP Today News: Spot ETF launches on November 13, negotiations between Trump and Xi lead to a fall

Today's news about XRP shows that the market is under dual pressure, with The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and disappointing results from the Xi-Trump meeting dragging the Crypto Assets market lower. XRP's decline has widened, dipping to a low of $2.3781. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell downplayed the possibility of a rate cut in December on October 29, putting pressure on risk assets. The Xi-Trump meeting lasted less than two hours, far below the expected four hours, failing to reach an agreement on tariff reductions.

Disappointment in the Xi-Trump meeting, tariffs only reduced by 10 percentage points

(Source: Trading View)

The highly anticipated meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping did not achieve significant concessions, nor did it lower the tariffs imposed by the United States on Chinese goods. The most disappointing news for the market regarding XRP today is that the results of the meeting fell far short of expectations. China agreed to delay restrictions on rare earth exports and to purchase U.S. agricultural products, including soybeans. Meanwhile, Trump reduced tariffs on fentanyl-related products from 20% to 10%. This adjustment lowered the overall tariff rate on Chinese goods from 57% to 47%.

However, since Trump's election as president, the tariffs on Chinese goods in the United States have surged from 3% to 47%. China's Xinhua News Agency reported: “Asian currencies showed mixed performance against the US dollar in the morning session, but may be influenced by market disappointment over the delay of the US-China trade truce agreement. The Sudden Financial Research Team pointed out in their commentary that this is the third delay of the truce agreement. This means that since the beginning of Trump's second presidential term, the actual tariff rate on Chinese goods in the United States has risen from 3.0% to 47.0%.”

According to reports, the team also stated that the truce in the trade war highlights the unresolved tensions and ongoing core differences between the two economies. The market was disappointed with the meeting and the policy outlook of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, pushing XRP to a low of $2.3781 during intraday trading on October 30. This is undoubtedly a double blow to XRP and the entire crypto assets market.

As a background, XRP is particularly sensitive to news regarding China-U.S. trade. On Friday, October 10, President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, triggering a flash crash of XRP. The token briefly fell to a low of $0.7773 on October 10, before rebounding. This extreme sensitivity stems from Ripple's positioning in the cross-border payment space, where China-U.S. trade relations directly affect global cross-border payment demand and regulatory environment.

The meeting lasted less than two hours, far below the expected four hours. Thursday's meeting, which was shorter than expected, disappointed investors and led to a significant drop in XRP demand. This market interpretation of “short meeting time = unsuccessful negotiations” is simplified but reflects the immediate sentiment of investors.

Canary Funds ETF automatically effective on November 13

It is crucial that the developments in US-China trade and the policy stance of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell overshadowed the news of the XRP spot ETF. Canary Funds submitted its amended S-1 form for the XRP spot ETF on Thursday, October 30, indicating that the ETF will launch on November 13. CryptoAmerica host and reporter Eleanor Terrett reported: “Canary Funds has submitted an updated S-1 document for its XRP spot ETF, removing the 'delay amendment' that prevented the registration from becoming automatically effective and gave the SEC control over the timing. Assuming Nasdaq approves its 8-A document, Canary's XRP ETF will officially launch on November 13.”

Earlier this week, despite the ongoing government shutdown in the United States, Bitwise, Canary Funds, and Grayscale launched cryptocurrency spot ETFs. The key point is that these ETF issuers included relevant provisions in their S-1 filings, allowing them to issue the ETFs after the exchanges submit Form 8-A, thus bypassing the need for approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This “automatic effectiveness” mechanism takes advantage of the statutory 20-day waiting period, circumventing the obstacles posed by the SEC's inability to operate normally during the government shutdown.

It is worth noting that, according to reports, the chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Paul Atkins, supports the automatic effectiveness method, which could lead to a series of modifications to the S-1 documents by XRP spot ETF issuers. Eleanor Terrett commented: “It is noteworthy that the chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission himself seems to support companies utilizing the automatic effectiveness mechanism. Although Chairman Atkins did not directly comment on the issuance of ETFs, he stated yesterday that he was pleased to see companies like MapLight listing during the government shutdown using the 20-day statutory waiting period, and praised Bitwise and Canary for using the same legal mechanism this week to issue SOL, HBAR, and LTC ETFs.”

The market expects that the launch of the XRP spot ETF will lead to a surge in capital inflows. The introduction of the XRP spot ETF may stimulate institutional demand and drive the price of the token to new highs. However, traders must wait for the U.S. government to reopen or for the XRP spot ETF to begin trading before assessing market demand. Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg is becoming increasingly optimistic about the demand for the XRP spot ETF. He recently raised his forecast for capital inflows into the XRP spot ETF, stating: “I might have been a bit pessimistic. If it reaches $10 billion, at least my prediction would be correct. If we see such capital inflows, I believe it will definitely rank in the top 20 of all time, and it might even enter the top 10.”

Technical Analysis: $2.4 is the Bull-Bear Watershed

(Source: Trading View)

On October 30, XRP fell by 4.4%, after a decline of 2.06% the previous day, closing at $2.4401. The token underperformed compared to the overall crypto assets market, which fell by 2.15%. After four consecutive days of decline, XRP continues to remain below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), indicating a bearish tendency. However, certain events could trigger a reversal of the bearish trend.

XRP Key Technical Levels

Support Levels: 2.35 USD, 2.2 USD, 2.0 USD, and 1.9 USD

50-day moving average resistance level: 2.6661 USD

200-day moving average resistance level: 2.6085 USD

Resistance Levels: $2.50, $2.62, $2.8, $3.0, and $3.66

$2.35 is the recent support level, and if it fails, it will expose deeper support at $2.20. $2.20 is the rebound starting point after the flash crash in October, and the importance of this price level lies in its representation of the initial stabilization zone after market panic. If even $2.20 fails, the psychological barrier of $2.00 will become the last defense.

In terms of resistance, XRP first needs to break through $2.5 to reverse the short-term downtrend. Subsequently, the 50-day and 200-day EMA around $2.62 will form a strong resistance zone. In technical analysis, when the price reclaims the major moving averages, it often signifies a trend reversal. If it can break through $2.8, the psychological barrier of $3.0 will become the next test target, with the ultimate goal being the historic high of $3.66.

Despite XRP falling for four consecutive days, its trading range is still narrowing before a key event occurs. This narrowing often signals an impending new volatility, and the current trend indicates that the market is waiting for a clear directional signal.

Bullish and Bearish Dual Scenario Analysis

XRP bullish scenarios include:

(Source: Trading View)

1. The deadlock in the U.S. Senate is over.

2. BlackRock submitted the S-1 filing for the iShares XRP Trust.

3. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approves the XRP spot ETF.

4. Blue chip companies increase their holdings of XRP to boost the national treasury reserves.

5. Ripple has obtained a charter bank license in the United States, and the “Market Structure Act” has made progress on Capitol Hill.

These positive events may drive the price of XRP to break through $2.4, paving the way for $2.62. If the price continues to break through $2.62, buyers may raise their target price to $2.80. After breaking $2.80, the psychological barrier of $3.0 may become the target. If the price remains above $3.00, further increases can be expected, challenging the historical high of $3.66.

Bearish scenarios include:

(Source: Trading View)

1. BlackRock has downplayed the plan to launch an XRP spot ETF.

2. The U.S. government shutdown continues to further delay the launch of the XRP spot ETF.

3. The U.S. Senate opposes legislation favorable to Crypto Assets.

4. Blue chip companies do not consider XRP as a reserve asset.

5. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has delayed or rejected Ripple's application for a national bank charter in the United States.

6. SWIFT's maintenance of its market share in the global remittance sector limits Ripple's market access.

These bearish scenarios could push XRP towards the vicinity of 2.35 dollars, thereby exposing the support level at 2.2 dollars. If this support level is broken, the next key support level will be 2.0 dollars.

The recent trend of XRP will now depend on Capitol Hill. The token remains in negative territory in October. However, the launch of the XRP spot ETF and progress on the market structure bill could trigger a rebound, driving the token to new highs.