Ethereum (ETH) price prediction: short-term pullback may fall below $4000, long-term target remains at $8400.

On September 24, 2025, Ethereum ( 0192837465657483921 https://www.gate.com/sell-ethereum-eth[ETH]( price fell below $4220, failing to hold above the $4500 rise, currently trading below the 100-hour simple moving average, with both hourly MACD and RSI indicating strengthening bear market momentum. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe predicts a pullback of 15% to the $3550–3750 range in the coming weeks, with the 20-week EMA at $3685 being a key support. Despite the short-term bearish outlook, ETH breaking above $4100 resistance and confirming support, with long-term targets pointing to $6000 to $8400, requires breaking through the $4280–4370 resistance; otherwise, the downside risk may push it down to $3880.

###Ethereum breaks through key support and enters consolidation phase

The price of Ethereum has sharply fallen from a recent high of 4636 USD, breaking below the support levels of 4420 USD and 4350 USD, reaching a low of 4000 USD before slightly rebounding. It is currently trading below 4220 USD, below the 100-hour simple moving average. The hourly chart has formed a key downward trend line, with resistance at 4370 USD. The MACD is accelerating in the bear market zone, and the RSI has fallen below the 50 level, indicating a bearish short-term momentum.

On-chain data shows that the 24-hour trading volume reached $20.8 billion, with a market capitalization of $498 billion, ranking second, reflecting an active market but increasing pressure. Ethereum failed to continue its upward trajectory of $4,500 and has entered a consolidation phase, with buyers trying to hold the support at $4,125, but the Bear Market is controlling the situation, and traders need to pay attention to the direction of the breakout.

###Technical Resistance and Targets: Breakthrough $4,370 or Welcome a Pullback

Ethereum faces immediate resistance at $4220, with the next level at $4280. The main resistance is at $4315, close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the fall of $4636 to $4000. If it breaks through $4315, the price may test the resistance at the $4370 trend line, and further upside could push towards $4450 or even $4550.

Analyst @CryptoTony__ on platform X emphasized that a breakout above $4370 needs to be accompanied by high trading volume; otherwise, a false breakout may lead to a rapid pullback. Merlijn the Trader pointed out that the recent breakout above $4100 confirmed support, flipping resistance into a new foundation, with long-term targets pointing to $6000 and $8400, aligning with the narrative of a bull market in the crypto industry. Historical data shows that the current upward trend line has supported the rise since April, and similar levels in the past triggered a rise of 90% to 125%.

###Downside Risk: 15% pullback to the 3550 USD range

If Ethereum fails to break through the resistance at $4280–4370, downward pressure may intensify. The initial support is at $4125, with the next key support at $4050. A break below this level could accelerate selling pressure to $4000, and even test $3880. Michaël van de Poppe analyzes that the recent confirmation of the symmetrical triangle breakout indicates a short-term bearish outlook, estimating a target of $3560, which is approximately a 15% drop from the current level. The 20-week EMA at $3685 is an important observation point.

CoinGlass data shows that ETH futures open interest is 13.2 billion USD, with 96 million USD liquidated in the last 24 hours, reflecting increased volatility in leveraged trading. Analysts warn that if the broader market turns bearish or if ETF inflows slow down, Ethereum may further pull back to the 3550–3750 USD range.

###Long-term Bullish Basis: Technical and Fundamental Support

Despite short-term pressure, the long-term outlook for Ethereum remains optimistic. A breakthrough above 4100 USD and confirmation of support demonstrates technical resilience, while fundamental drivers include:

· Ethereum 2.0 upgrade continues to optimize network performance, with a 35% increase in transaction volume in Q2 2025, and over 2 million daily active users for DApps.

· The inflow of spot Ethereum ETF in 2025 increased from $3.73 billion to $13.4 billion, enhancing market confidence with institutional participation.

· Improved overall market sentiment, with Bitcoin breaking through 110,000 USD providing tailwinds for altcoins, and DeFi TVL exceeding 150 billion USD.

If it breaks through $4370, Ethereum may enter a price discovery phase, testing historical highs of $4800 and higher targets.

###Conclusion

Ethereum is consolidating below $4220, with bearish signals on the technical front indicating a potential pullback of 15% to $3550–3750. However, a breakout above $4370 could push it up to $4550 and even $8400. The Ethereum 2.0 upgrade, ETF inflows, and market tailwinds support a long-term bullish outlook, but short-term vigilance is required against resistance failures and liquidation risks. In Q4 2025, the intersection of Ethereum's technology and fundamentals will determine whether it can move from consolidation to new highs, and investors need to closely monitor volume and support dynamics.

Disclaimer: This article is for news information only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions with caution.