Trump's control over the Federal Reserve becomes a reality! Assassin Milan votes to cut five basis points "interest rate much lower than other committee members" pumps down the dot plot average.

The Fed's dot plot in September broke out a "125 basis points" extreme expectation, Wall Street predicted that it was done by the Fed assassin Milan sent by Trump, triggering a fierce debate about Trump's influence and the Fed's independence (Synopsis: Trump controls the Fed further!) White House adviser Milan becomes a Fed voting commissioner, independence challenged) (Background supplement: from coffee to TV, 5 charts to see how much Trump's tariffs have increased Americans' daily consumption? Wall Street has always kept an eye on every line of the Fed, but the dot map in September 2025 made more waves than ever. Although the Fed announced a "risk-controlled" interest rate cut of 1 yard and hinted at two more cuts this year, seemingly moderate, but because of an abrupt "125 basis points" expectation, Wall Street instantly fried the pan, although there is no specific evidence to prove it, but the market unanimously believes that this is voted by the "Trump Fed assassin" - White House economic adviser Stephen I. Miran "Milan" commissioner, questioning whether the Fed's independence has been affected by the White House. The dot plot is superficially unanimous, and internal opinions are half-open The latest decision lowered the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.0%–4.25%, the first rate cut since December 2024. According to the dot plot published by the Federal Reserve, the median shows another two yards down during the year; The probability of interest rate cuts in October and December in the futures market is as high as 70%, and the short-term expectations on both sides almost overlap. But zoomed in, 9 of the 19 voting committee members favored another 1 or less drop, and the other 9 advocated 2 times, showing a tug-of-war, and the real glaring thing was the only point that advocated a 125 basis point drop at a time, which was considered to be from "Milan". It is not surprising that the reason for the reasonable speculation is that the resolution on whether to cut the interest rate at the conclusion of the September meeting was 11 to 1, and only Stephen I. Miran advocated a 50 basis point cut at a time to express dissent, and everyone else expressed a 25 basis point cut, which also shows Milan's eagerness to cut interest rates. By 2026, the Fed has parted ways with the market If you push the timeline to 2026, the divergence is even greater. The median dot plot expects only one more rate cut, but market estimates have implied three rate cuts for futures prices. There are two reasons behind this: first, the unemployment rate in the United States rose to 4.3%, and the labor market weakened; Second, the core PCE is still stuck at around 3%, above the 2% target, and the Fed will imply that this set of economic data makes decision-making more difficult. Coupled with the Fed high-level change in 2026 and the possible personnel layout of the Trump administration, the interest rate curve is full of political noise. "Trump Assassin" parachuted to vote immediately? While no evidence has been found that any commissioners have been politically directed, the market has labeled the 125 basis point expectation a "Trump assassin," accusing the White House of influencing the Fed through personnel. Trump has indeed criticized Powell in the past for being too slow to downgrade, and has even participated in the September FOMC voting meeting within a few days of Milan taking office, but this is a normal political struggle and is not directly related to the extreme values in the dot plot. But Powell reiterated at the press conference that "the Fed relies on data and is not directed by the government" and loudly defended independence, tantamount to blocking out the "assassin" argument. Investor interpretation: The median rule is inaccurate, to put aside extreme values? From an operational point of view, the first task is to distinguish between extremes and trends, with medians telling you the baseline scenario and extremes revealing stress tests – if inflation falls back quickly or employment deteriorates, the Fed may be forced to act more than expected. Second, 2026 will lead to a complete renewal of members, still prolonging uncertainty. Finally, political risk, while difficult to quantify, has entered the interest rate curve. A dot plot is not just a set of dots, but a projection of the three forces of policy consensus, data reality and political pull. Back to that dot plot: a 125 basis point lone point, and despite the Fed's cautious action, these disagreements foreshadow a bumpy path ahead. For investors, reading the data, identifying noise, and continuously testing the Fed's independent resilience will be the most important risk control homework for the next 12 months. Related reports Can Trump fire Fed Cook? Here's the legal community's answer Three Steps to Take Control of the Fed: Demystifying Trump's Clear Roadmap for Reshaping the U.S. Central Bank For the first time in history! Trump "fired" the current Fed Governor Cook, and fully controlled the United States and further "Trump's control of the Fed has come true!" Assassin Milan votes to drop five yards "interest rates are far lower" other committee members "pull down the dot plot average" This article was first published in BlockTempo's "Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Blockchain News Media".