DOGE (DOGE) price prediction: Over 1.6 billion USD in DOGE has been transferred to CEX as of September, and the short-term trend depends on the ETF decision.

With strong expectations in the market for the DOGE ETF to potentially be approved for listing, the price of DOGE has been continuously rising recently. However, hidden risks lie behind this upward trend: investors, including large holders, are engaging in large-scale dumping. Although this profit-taking pressure has not yet completely shattered the upward momentum, the abnormal behavior indicated by on-chain data has raised concerns about the sustainability of this rebound. Currently, the price of DOGE is at a critical crossroads, and its short-term trend will be determined by the final outcome of the ETF.

ETF expectations boost price rise, but dumping pressure intensifies simultaneously.

(Source: Glassnode)

Recently, driven by optimistic sentiment around ETFs, the price of DOGE has continued to rise, with a 17% increase over the past week, currently trading at about 0.282 USD. However, accompanying this upward trend is a sharp increase in the balance of DOGE on exchanges. Since the beginning of September, approximately 5.81 billion DOGE (worth over 1.63 billion USD) has been transferred to exchanges, indicating that many investors are preparing to sell their held tokens.

This behavior of taking profits reflects the increasing cautious sentiment among traders. Although the current selling has not yet derailed the DOGE price, if the selling accelerates, the recent bullish momentum may weaken in the upcoming trades.

On-chain indicator alert: Long-term holders are starting to take profits.

The "Coin Day Destruction" (CDD) indicator shows a new risk for DOGE. This indicator is designed to track tokens that have not moved for a long time and gives them a higher weight. For the first time in over a month, long-term holders of DOGE have begun to transfer their assets in large amounts. Historically, this kind of activity typically indicates that influential groups may be preparing to sell DOGE, which is often a bearish signal.

Prior to this, long-term holders provided price stability for DOGE by avoiding large-scale dumping. Their recent movements highlight the potential fragility of the market. If these large wallets begin to liquidate, the resulting dumping pressure could challenge the recent price rise of DOGE and weaken investor confidence.

DOGE price faces a critical decision: ETF approval may determine the trend

(Source: TradingView)

Currently, the price of DOGE is hovering below the resistance level of 0.287 USD and is trying to hold onto the key support level of 0.273 USD. This determines its short-term trend.

If the inflow to the exchange and profit-taking continue to pressure the momentum, DOGE may drop below the support level of $0.273. Once it breaks below, the price may test $0.241, reversing the recent rise. However, if the DOGE ETF is approved today as Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas mentioned, market sentiment may immediately reverse. In this case, DOGE could break through the resistance level of $0.287 and test $0.300, or even higher, invalidating the current bearish assumption driven by selling pressure.

Conclusion

DOGE is at a critical moment, with its fate hanging in the balance. On one hand, there is the immense bullish momentum brought by ETF expectations, and on the other hand, there is the potential risk posed by long-term holders taking profits. Whether DOGE can transform the ETF hype into a sustainable long-term rise will depend on whether the catalysts from regulators can ultimately overcome the market's inherent selling pressure.