Bull market finale expected within 50 days.
Cycle analysis indicates BTC is 95% through its current phase (1,017 days in), amidst a typical Q3 volatility.
Consider this strategic guide for potential gains.
Cycle duration:
1,017 days have passed since the November 2022 low.
Previous bull cycles peaked between 1,060โ1,100 days.
This suggests a potential climax in late October to mid-November 2025.
Approximately 50 days from now.
Additional evidence supports this timeline.
Halving to peak correlation:
503 days have elapsed since April 2024.
Historically, peaks occur 518โ580 days post-halving.
We're 77โ86% through this window.
Entering a critical phase.
Caution is advised during this period.
Potential downturn ahead:
Post-peak, BTC typically experiences a 70-80% decline over 370โ410 days.
This risk projection aligns with Q1โQ2 2026.
Historical data suggests a high probability of a 2026 bearish trend.
But first, a potential surge.
Seasonal trends:
September traditionally underperforms (average โ6.17%).
Q3 presents mixed resultsโmedian +0.80% with positive total points, but average โ2.10% due to significant losses.
Common pattern: September dip followed by October/November recovery.
Key date to watch: September 17th.
Weekly chart analysis:
BTC currently at $109.8K after pullback.
All-time high $124.1K (August 14).
Support levels: 50-week SMA $95.9K, 200-week SMA $52.3K.
7-week SPX correlation at โ0.25 (decoupling).
Low correlation often precedes significant shifts.
Daily chart technical indicators:
200-day BPRO $111.0K;
200-day SMA $101.5K;
RSI 43;
ATR 3,000;
50-day volatility 2,940.
Immediate support $107.7โ$108.7K;
Immediate resistance $113.0โ$114.1K.
Further insights below๐
Directional outlook:
CTF/HTF Trailers indicate bearish sentiment.
ATR-based pivotal points: $112,758 / $114,292.
Neutral to bearish below these levels; structure remains intact above $107โ108K.
Bears may gain momentum below this range.
Secondary corrections typically range 20-30%.
Miners showing resilience.
On-chain and mining metrics:
Mining cost $95.4K (cost/price ratio โ0.86);
Miners in stable condition, minimal capitulation risk.
NUPL 0.527;
MVRV 2.20; over 90% of supply in profit.
The narrative extends beyond these metrics.
Institutional activity:
ETFs 24-hour spot volume $630.94M;
Net inflow +$332.8M on September 3 (first significant influx following August outflows).
Assets under management total $155.8B:
โ BlackRock $81.44B,
โ Fidelity $35.28B,
โ GBTC $19.8B.
Spot commands 93.54% market share.
Implications of these factors:โคต๏ธ
In essence:
We're 96% through the cycle.
50 days until the projected peak window.
Key support levels maintained, on-chain metrics resilient, ETFs showing modest accumulation (AUM down $13 billion from peak).
September objective: maintain stability.
OctoberโNovember: potential peak followed by altcoin season.
Mark your calendar: October 22
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