Odaily Planet Daily News: Three researchers from the U.S. Federal Reserve System published a paper on February 12th stating that data from the prediction market platform Kalshi can reflect macroeconomic expectations more in real-time and should be incorporated into the Federal Reserve’s decision-making framework. The authors of the paper include Federal Reserve Chief Economist Anthony Diercks, research assistant Jared Dean Katz, and Johns Hopkins University researcher Jonathan Wright.
The study compared Kalshi data with traditional surveys and market-implied expectations, concluding that Kalshi can provide high-frequency, continuously updated probability distributions used to measure risk-neutral probabilities of macro indicators such as interest rate decisions. The researchers pointed out that Kalshi reacts more quickly after major policy statements or economic data releases.
However, the report emphasizes that the Federal Reserve research paper is an internal discussion material and does not represent an official policy stance. (Cointelegraph)
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Polymarket removes prediction markets related to the U.S. military Iran rescue operation
Gate News message, April 5, the prediction market platform Polymarket has taken down a betting page related to a U.S. military rescue operation. Local time on Friday, a U.S. F-15E fighter jet was shot down by Iran, one crew member has been rescued, and the other remains missing and falling. The page previously allowed users to bet on which day the U.S. side would confirm that the two pilots had been rescued.
GateNews5h ago
Polymarket: A certain account put $490k into a bet that NCAA Arizona would beat Michigan.
On April 5, during a Polymarket prediction event, an account with a 42.1% win probability bet $490k that Arizona would beat Michigan, with an opening position average price of 50¢. The game will be played at 8:49 a.m. Beijing time this morning, and the suspense lies in the offensive and defensive matchups between the two teams.
GateNews6h ago
An account with profits exceeding $4 million bet $590k on the NBA Pistons -1.5 spread to beat the 76ers
On April 5, on-chain data shows that in a prediction for a game between the NBA Pistons and the 76ers, a certain account placed a bet of $590k on the Pistons giving up 3.5 points, with expected profits exceeding $4 million. The Pistons are currently ranked 1st in the Eastern Conference, while the 76ers are ranked 6th.
GateNews6h ago
Former Obama campaign manager Stephanie Cutter has joined prediction market platform Kalshi as a policy adviser.
Gate News message: On April 4, former Obama presidential campaign manager Stephanie Cutter joined prediction market platform Kalshi as a policy advisor.
GateNews15h ago
NCAA "Final Four" tips off tomorrow morning; Polymarket data shows the University of Michigan has a 35% chance of winning, the highest.
On April 4, the NCAA “Final Four” is about to kick off. The University of Michigan has the highest chance to win the championship at 35%, while the University of Arizona is at 32%. The games will feature a matchup between the University of Connecticut and the University of Illinois, as well as a showdown between the University of Michigan and the University of Arizona.
GateNews17h ago
Prediction: the market platform will accelerate its expansion in Asia; regulatory gray areas are the biggest challenge for further growth
Polymarket and PredicXion are expanding into Asian markets and launching Chinese-language support to drive localization. However, countries such as China and India lack clear regulation for blockchain prediction markets, and there are strict restrictions on gambling activities, which affects market expansion. The difference between prediction markets and gambling is their ability to aggregate information.
GateNews18h ago
