Prediction Market

In the first quarter of 2026, funding for crypto startups nearly reached $5 billion, down 16% year over year. Funds flowed into practical sectors, where prediction markets led the way, raising more than $1.7 billion. Top investment institutions are accelerating their entry, and major funding projects include Kalshi and Polymarket.

A certain account placed a $340k bet on a prediction platform, predicting that the 76ers would beat the Minnesota Timberwolves, with an opening average entry price of 6035¢. The game was held today, and both the 76ers and the Minnesota Timberwolves are ranked sixth in their respective divisions.

The prediction market platform Kalshi in the United States has hired Carter, a former aide to President Obama, as a policy adviser to strengthen ties with the government and address regulatory challenges. Carter’s addition symbolizes Kalshi’s proactive outreach in political circles, while also drawing attention to legal disputes and concerns about insider trading by political figures. Prediction market data is increasingly becoming an important reference for tracking social trends.

Kalshi announced the hiring of Stephanie Cutter, a former advisor to President Obama, to strengthen its relationships in Washington, D.C. amid scrutiny and lawsuits regarding its prediction markets.

The “Futures Events Exchange,” launched in Taiwan as early as 2006, combines academic research with market mechanisms and has become an important prediction market in the Chinese-speaking world. The platform trades using virtual currency to predict the likelihood of future events based on prices; some predictions performed better than polls, but later it shut down after a transition. Compared with Polymarket today, the Futures Events Exchange is more like an academic experiment.

Gate News message, April 3, former Obama presidential campaign manager Stephanie Cutter joined prediction market platform Kalshi as a policy advisor.

Polymarket’s probability for a ceasefire between the US and Iran before May 31 has fallen to 39%, down 12% within 24 hours. Total trading volume is approaching $85 million, and both sides must publicly confirm for a ceasefire to occur. Personnel changes in the U.S. military have triggered dissatisfaction among senior officials, adding to tensions.

Polymarket achieved $1.71 million in daily revenue on April 3, and for the first time introduced a fee for multiple categories through a new rate structure. At the same time, users holding POLY tokens can receive a fee discount, enhancing the token’s utility. Polymarket’s prediction data is also favored by traditional financial markets, influencing the global oil futures market and further demonstrating its commercial potential.

Gate News message, April 3, Polymarket prediction market data shows that the probability of USD.ai having an FDV over $100 million on the day after launch is 92%, the probability of over $150 million is 85%, and the probability of over $200 million is 50%. As of now, trading volume in this prediction market has already exceeded $2.5 million.

Polymarket has launched daily contracts tied to U.S. stocks and commodities, which are automatically settled using real-time price data from Pyth Network. The new contract formats include daily up-and-down contracts and settlement-price contracts, improving settlement efficiency and transparency. ICE is investing $600 million in Polymarket, signaling confidence in its potential.

Genius has published a new prediction event. Data shows that the probability that FDV exceeds $100 million after one day from opening is 74%, and the probability that it exceeds $200 million is 33%. At the same time, Genius announced it will complete the TGE by April 12, with a total airdrop amount of 70 million tokens.

Gate News reports that on April 3, Polymarket announced it has reached an exclusive prediction market partnership with Spain’s La Liga. La Liga becomes the first major European football league to partner with a prediction market platform. Following the agreement, official match prediction markets for teams such as Real Madrid and FC Barcelona will be available exclusively on Polymarket.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed a lawsuit on April 3 against Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois, reaffirming its exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts and prediction markets, and seeking to have federal courts bar state-level interference with prediction market activities that comply with federal regulations.

The Trump administration has recently intervened in a lawsuit involving the CFTC and the regulators of gambling in three states, challenging the states’ authority to regulate prediction markets. The CFTC argues that, under the Commodity Exchange Act, it has exclusive jurisdiction over these markets, and accuses the states of overstepping their authority in an attempt to change the nature of the wagering event contracts. This lawsuit reflects regulatory actions by 11 states regarding prediction markets, each facing different legal challenges. If a federal court sides with the CFTC, it will help provide legal protection for prediction markets; otherwise, it will increase operational uncertainty.

On Polymarket, one account staked $170,000 on the Mavericks to beat the Spurs, with odds over 70%. The Mavericks’ current record is 39 wins and 37 losses, ranked 8th in the Western Conference; the Spurs are 57 wins and 18 losses, ranked 2nd. Victor Wembanyama may be sidelined.

Gate News message, April 3, a representative from a prediction market platform, Mustafa, posted on the X platform, stating that in April the platform will provide over $5 million in liquidity subsidies for sports prediction markets.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a lawsuit seeking to stop the State of Illinois from regulating prediction markets, arguing that the state’s actions infringe on federal regulatory authority. This case marks the CFTC’s first legal action to challenge state-level gambling regulation. The dispute began when Illinois issued a cease-and-desist order to the prediction market Kalshi, alleging it violated the state’s gambling laws.

Based on data from a prediction platform, the probability that the U.S. Department of Homeland Security government shutdown will continue for more than 70 days has fallen to 8%, with trading volume exceeding $1.27 million. Trump said he is about to sign an order to ensure employee pay, praising House Republicans for their efforts on this issue.