ETH has recently recovered slightly to $2.05k, up more than 3% over the past week after dropping from the December high. But what caused the price to be pushed below $2K a few weeks ago? According to data from SoSoValue, spot Ethereum ETFs experienced a net outflow of $129.18 million on February 11, with Fidelity leading the withdrawals at $67.99 million. The total net assets now stand at $11.27 billion, accounting for 4.78% of market capitalization. When institutional investors start withdrawing funds, prices often follow.

Looking at the chart, Ethereum has broken below all key moving averages. The 20-day EMA is at $2,388, the 50-day EMA at $3,182, and the 100-day EMA at $3,003. On the 1-hour chart, the price is trapped within a symmetrical triangle pattern, with the Parabolic SAR at $1,986 acting as resistance. The RSI at 54.36 indicates a neutral market but shows signs of recovery. The $1,900 level is a critical psychological support—if it breaks below this, the next demand zone at $1,750 will open. A breakout above $2,000 with volume could reverse the downtrend and bring $2,150 back into range.

Interestingly, triangle tops are often resolved with a move equal to the height of the pattern. With price compressed between $1,900 and $2,100, a clear breakout in either direction could trigger significant volatility. Additionally, Ethereum has two major upgrades scheduled for 2026. Glamsterdam will be deployed in the first half of the year, introducing Proposer-Builder Separation and Block-Level Access Lists to improve MEV fairness. Hegota will follow later in the year, implementing Verkle Trees to enhance state access efficiency. The testnet bals-devnet-2 launched on February 4, with the epbs-devnet-0 network expected to deploy by the end of February. These upgrades represent significant technical improvements, but the market has yet to reflect their impact.

The current price action reflects short-term selling pressure rather than expectations of network upgrades. If ETF flows stabilize and technical levels hold, the upgrade story could provide support as 2026 approaches. The next step depends on whether Ethereum can hold above $1,900. Closing above $2,000 with increased volume would reverse the triangle pattern, but a break below $1,900 could open the door to $1,750, with deeper downside risk toward $1,595 if selling pressure continues.