Gate Daily (November 26): Texas spends 5 million to buy Bitcoin ETF; Trump’s "strong rate cut faction" confidant may take over The Federal Reserve (FED)

Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a sideways consolidation, temporarily reported around $87,400 on November 26. Texas has launched a Bitcoin reserve program, announcing $5 million in BlackRock IBIT purchase funds. The prediction platform Polymarket has received regulatory approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Trump's confidant Kevin Hassett has become the hottest candidate for the Federal Reserve chair, driving expectations for a December rate cut at 80%.

Macro Events & Coin Circle Hotspots

1. Texas may have taken the first step in the race to incorporate Bitcoin into the state budget. According to reports, the state has executed its first Texas Strategic Bitcoin allocation. According to a release from the Texas Blockchain Council, the state spent approximately $5 million last week to purchase IBIT under BlackRock. Reportedly, this transaction appears to be the first fund deployment authorized under the SB 21 bill. The Bitcoin fund will join two other traditional assets under the state trust fund, including SPY valued at nearly $700 million.

2. The prediction platform Polymarket has obtained regulatory approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate as an intermediary trading platform. Polymarket announced on Tuesday that the CFTC has issued a revised designation order allowing the company to “operate an intermediary trading platform, but must comply with all requirements applicable to federally regulated exchanges in the United States.” Polymarket stated that this approval will enable the platform to directly solicit brokers and clients, facilitating trading in U.S. marketplaces.

3. The selection of the Chair of the Federal Reserve has entered a critical stage, with Kevin Hassett, seen as a close ally of Trump, emerging as the most popular candidate. The market quickly regarded him as a potential leader of the “strong dovish” faction. Amid the candidates' movements and weak retail sales, along with moderate PPI, the expectation for a rate cut in December surged from 40% to over 80% within a few days, triggering a severe repricing of global assets.

News Updates

1. USDe TVL has dropped to 7.6 billion USD, a decline of over 50% compared to the data from October.

2. A certain ancient giant whale is suspected of selling 20,000 ETH after eight months, worth 58.14 million USD.

3. The acting chair of the CFTC recruits a CEO for the Innovation Committee as it expands crypto oversight.

4. SKALE collaborates with Base to launch the L3 network “SKALE on Base,” designed specifically for AI agent workloads.

5. Multicoin Capital purchased another 60,000 AAVE, worth 10.68 million USD.

6. Bitwise DOGE ETF has obtained listing certification from NYSE Arca and may be listed as early as Wednesday.

7. The fifth largest bank in the United States, M&T Bank, is testing its developed stablecoin on the Stellar platform.

8, Texas, USA initiates Bitcoin reserve plan, first purchase of 5 million dollars for BlackRock's IBIT.

9. Arthur Hayes purchased PENDLE tokens worth $260,500 from Flowdesk.

Market Trend

1. Latest Bitcoin news: $BTC remains in a Sideways consolidation, currently reported at around 87,400 USD, with 89 million USD liquidated in the past 24 hours, primarily from long positions;

2. The US stock market continued to rise on November 25, as economic data clearly supports a rate cut by The Federal Reserve (FED) next month, but NVIDIA and Alphabet, the two major artificial intelligence (AI) benchmark stocks, showed different trends. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 664.18 points, an increase of 1.4%, closing at 47,112.45 points; the S&P 500 index rose by 60.77 points, an increase of 0.9%, closing at 6,765.89 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 153.59 points, an increase of 0.7%, closing at 23,025.59 points.

(Source: Gate)

3. In the Gate BTC/USDT liquidation map, based on the current 87,506.40 USDT, if it drops to around 85,249 USD, the total long position liquidation amount exceeds 549 million USD; if it rises to around 88,260 USD, the total short position liquidation amount exceeds 266 million USD. The liquidation amount for shorts is significantly lower than that for longs, so it is advisable to reasonably control the leverage ratio to avoid triggering large-scale liquidations during market fluctuations.

(Source: Coinglass)

4. In the past 24 hours, BTC spot inflow was 2.22 billion USD, outflow was 2.37 billion USD, resulting in a net outflow of 150 million USD.

(Source: Coinglass)

5. In the past 24 hours, contracts such as $PIPPIN, $ARC, $XPL, $MON, and $WLFI have seen net outflows leading, indicating trading opportunities.

X KOL Selected Insights

Phyrex Ni (@Phyrex_Ni): “Today's assignment isn't too difficult to write. Although the overall market is still maintaining a slight fluctuation, investors' sentiment is relatively optimistic, especially since Bessenet mentioned that Trump may announce the candidate for the Federal Reserve chair before Christmas. This could be a counter to the expectations of the Federal Reserve's December dot plot and Powell's hawkish statements. After changing the Federal Reserve chair, Trump will have four votes in hand; as long as he can pull in two more votes, it will be much easier to lower interest rates in 2026.”

“In addition, it has been revealed that the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine is nearing its end. Although some media have reported that Ukraine has agreed to 28 conditions, this has not yet been confirmed and is expected to be difficult, especially since Ukraine would need to cede the territories currently in conflict. I believe Zelensky would not agree to this, but I estimate that a ceasefire should be achievable by 2026, as it has been an ongoing cycle.”

“Although other economic data such as September's retail data and PPI data were released today and these figures are not very good, they are still September's data, so their impact on the market is very limited. What the market is most concerned about should still be the December dot plot and Powell's speech.”

Looking at the data for Bitcoin, the turnover rate continues to decline slightly, and investor sentiment remains relatively stable. The turnover is mainly concentrated among short-term investors who have been bottom-fishing in the last two days. Currently, the overall situation still lacks negative news, but the expectation of a rate cut by The Federal Reserve (FED) in December has already been established. The market is still hoping for further positive news. In the short term, $BTC may still maintain a slight fluctuation trend. Liquidity in the United States has not yet fully recovered.

“The data from URPD is still relatively optimistic, and investors who are stuck at high positions have not shown signs of panic. The chip structure remains relatively dense, as Bitcoin does not have an independent narrative and still relies on the performance of tech stocks. Today's decline of NVIDIA is due to concerns about profit being shared with Google, but Google’s rise is quite good. However, this kind of dispute still makes the performance of tech stocks today not very optimistic.”

Today's Outlook

1. U.S. October Durable Goods Orders Preliminary (MoM), previous value was 2.9%

2. U.S. September Durable Goods Orders Preliminary (MoM), previous value was 2.9%

3. The seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States last week (thousands) (as of 1122) was 220, previous value.

4. U.S. personal consumption expenditures in October (in hundreds of millions of dollars), previous value was 1345.

5, U.S. September new home sales (annualized month-on-month), previous value was 20.5%

6, US October New Home Sales (Annualized Monthly Rate)

7. Change in US EIA crude oil inventory (10,000 barrels) (as of 1121), previous value was -342.6

8. The British Chancellor of the Exchequer, Hunt, has announced the budget plan.