ZhangSanfengWatchingTheMarket

4.30 Bitcoin Operation Strategy Analysis | Hawkish Rate Landing, Short-term Bearish Dominance
Last night, after listening to Master Bao's speech, I thought I would "send him off," but it turned out to be just a different way of saying more hawkishness.
This time, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, and the overall stance remains cautious, emphasizing that inflation pressures are still present, and market expectations for rate cuts this year continue to shift later. After the news was released, risk aversion sentiment increased, funds flowed out in the short term, driving Bitcoin

I already said that the rebound is a fake move, and the script has played out again
Brothers, isn’t today's market movement very familiar?
I warned everyone early in the session:
In a weak market, don’t mistake a rebound for a reversal; pushing higher is most likely just giving short sellers a chance to enter.
As a result, the market was ruthless, the rebound couldn’t hold, and then it fell back all the way, confirming the bearish rhythm again. The decline that was coming didn’t miss a step. The opportunities that should have been there, the market also gave in advance. That’s why I keep empha

In a weak market, a rebound is not a reversal; it's just giving the bears a microphone.
As a result, the market is cooperating well, rising but still unable to stabilize, just to be pushed back down after a brief rise, a classic weak trend.
Currently, the rebound strength in the market is clearly insufficient, with no sustained upward momentum, indicating selling pressure above is still present.
Bulls have tried several times to organize a counterattack, but it’s like a temporary team fighting ranked matches—disbanding right at the start.
As long as the key resistance above cannot be b

At 2:00 AM, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision; at 2:30 AM, Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy. As the 63rd policy communication meeting during his eight-year tenure as Fed Chair, this press conference is likely to be the last major policy statement of his term.
The current interest rate ceiling is 3.75%, and the market generally expects it to remain unchanged this time. In other words, the Fed is very likely to hold steady for the third consecutive time, maintaining the interest rate range of 3.50%-3.75%, a level that has not been adjusted

Ethereum Thinking | Weakness Continues, Rebound is Not Reversal, Just Adding to the Shorts
After yesterday's decline, this morning's rally looks more like a technical breather.
The price rebounded to around 2300 but was pushed back down again, indicating selling pressure is still present above.
The bulls just started to show signs of life but were quickly pushed back, and the rebound lacks sustainability.
Looking at the 4-hour structure:
The previous decline was very decisive, with key supports one after another failing, leaving little room for bulls to struggle.
Currently, the price is

April 29 Bitcoin (BTC) Thoughts:
The overall trend yesterday remained weak, with prices oscillating downward. Multiple attempts to break through the 80,000 level during the session were unsuccessful, indicating significant selling pressure above, and the bulls' repeated efforts were pushed back.
Currently, strong resistance above is around 79,500, with support on the daily chart near 73,600. Without a volume-driven breakout, prices at high levels are still prone to pressure and potential pullbacks.
From the news perspective, signs of easing in the US-Iran situation have appeared for now, but i

The rebound is only a correction; the short-term trading rhythm remains unchanged.
At the time, many people in the market were still expecting a reversal, but I made it clear that it was only a technical fix, not a genuine move toward strength. I also directly pointed out the 77500–78000 pressure zone, emphasizing that the rebound is an opportunity for shorts—don’t blindly chase highs.
After that, the price action basically played out as expected. It rebounded, met resistance, and then fell again. The bears’ rhythm was carried out exactly, and my thinking was once again validated by the market

Thursday's interest rate decision is approaching, and the market is about to enter a high-volatility phase.
At such critical junctures, it's not luck that counts,
but the ability to plan ahead.
Waiting until the trend unfolds before chasing,
most of the time will only lead to being passive.
This time, a limited number of spots are open, with a threshold of 5000U.
There is only one requirement: strong execution.
Enter the market decisively when it's time,
exit promptly when it's time to leave.
My approach has always been very clear:
First, control the risk,
first ensure I

If you can't get a signal, you shouldn't enter the market.
Recently, many people have private messaged me asking: "Can I rush now?" "Can you guide me?"
My only answer is: learn to wait first.
The most expensive tuition in trading is often paid by those who get "itchy."
Watching the candlestick move and can't sit still, seeing others share their wins and wanting to follow the trend—this is instinct, but trading requires going against instinct.
After so long in the crypto world, the most important lesson I've learned is:
When both hands leave the keyboard and you watch the market cal

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has just concluded its monetary policy meeting. Although the benchmark interest rate remains unchanged at 0.75%, Ueda Kazuo's remarks at the press conference were more "hawkish" than expected. He explicitly stated that as long as the economic trajectory remains on track, rate hikes will continue, targeting a neutral rate of 1.0%.
For the cryptocurrency market, this is not just a rate number but a major liquidity migration.
1. Core Killer Move: The Endgame of Arbitrage Trading
The yen has long been a source of cheap capital worldwide. Investors borrow yen at nearly zer

April 28th: The “big pancake” rebound idea is only a correction—its high-altitude rhythm remains unchanged
In the early morning, the price probed down to the 76,400 support level and then stabilized. It was followed by a weak rebound to around 77,400, maintaining a tight sideways range. This move clearly carries the technical characteristics of a bottoming repair and recovery, not a reversal.
4-hour cycle: The support below has been largely consumed by repeated tests in the prior period. The current rebound momentum is limited; overall, the rhythm is still pressured by the bears.
The current

Federal Reserve Rate Decision Coming Soon
The most focused event in the market this week will be the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision announced early Thursday, along with an important speech by Powell.
Currently, the market widely expects the Fed to likely keep interest rates unchanged for the time being, with no immediate plans to raise or cut rates. Therefore, the outcome of the rate decision itself carries limited suspense; the key factor influencing short-term market trends and volatility lies in the policy signals conveyed in Powell's speech.
The current geopolitical situation con

The intra-day Bitcoin first surged higher and then pulled back, forming a typical surge and retracement pattern, with the overall rhythm showing a rapid rise followed by a synchronized correction. The price formed a short-term double top around 79,500, encountering resistance on the upside and then oscillating and falling back, but overall the intra-day trend remains bullish and no trend weakening has occurred.
Although there is a correction in the short term, the overall bullish structure has not been broken, and the main trend still leans strong.
The 79,500 level has formed a short-term do

Bitcoin has just experienced a rapid decline, dropping from 79,455 directly down to 77,700.
This kind of sharp drop is the easiest to throw off your rhythm—fearing a rally when shorting, fearing further drops when bottom-fishing, ending up getting hit from both sides.
Trading doesn't have to be so exhausting—first look at the trend, then signals, set proper stop-losses, control position sizes, and leave the rest to the market.
Market analysis
2-hour timeframe
BTC encountered resistance at 79,455 and pulled back, currently breaking below the short-term moving average, disrupting the b

Short positions were fulfilled as expected, and this wave of decline mostly aligned with the morning judgment.
The market surged in the morning but struggled to break above the key resistance level, with volume unable to keep up. After a continuous four-hour rally, clear signs of fatigue appeared. Multiple attempts to test the high were quickly pushed back, indicating persistent selling pressure above.
In the afternoon, the market started to weaken, and the bears gained momentum, causing the price to fall steadily, ultimately confirming the expected pullback pattern. The early warning to be ca

After this rally, Bitcoin (“the big pie”) has been clearly stuck once it reached the upper resistance zone.
On the 4-hour timeframe, we’re seeing continuous bullish candles pushing higher, but the pace of the advance is getting slower and momentum is starting to fade. At the same time, the Bollinger Bands are gradually tightening, suggesting the market is building up for the next directional choice.
From what we can see on the chart, it’s very clear:
Every time price probes upward, it gets quickly pushed back down. There’s heavier sell pressure around 79,500, and sell orders above are pressing

Monday Morning Session | BTC Trading Strategy
The current market shows a breakout upward + high-level consolidation pattern, with bullish momentum still being released, but there is a short-term need for a pullback confirmation. The pace is not urgent; focus on waiting for signals at key levels.
Key ranges:
* Watch above: 79,000–80,000
→ If facing significant resistance, consider a pullback
→ If volume increases and stabilizes, the upward potential may further open
* Watch below: 77,500–70,000
→ Valid support allows for phased low-buy participation in rebounds
→ If broken downw

The recent market situation, to put it simply, is one word: grinding.
Prices are moving sideways, seemingly unchanged,
but small funds have already been "washed" back and forth into chaos;
in contrast, large funds have hardly withdrawn, showing a very steady attitude.
On the surface, there's a balance between bulls and bears,
but a closer look reveals—bears seem to be defending rather than actively attacking.
There's also a key detail:
The 3-day average cost is slowly rising, indicating the bottom is gradually moving up, and the chip structure is tightening.
This kind of market won't stay side

BTC experienced a rapid surge during midday, with the price actively advancing, and short-term sentiment clearly warming.
Currently, the pace of the rally seems somewhat aggressive, mainly driven by short covering and emotional factors. Although trading volume has increased, its sustainability still needs to be observed. The area near the previous high shows signs of selling pressure gradually emerging.
Key levels
Watch above: 80,000 (strong resistance, confirmation needed for a breakout)
Support below: 76,000–75,000 (retracement defense zone)
This move appears more like testing the upper resi