U.S. President Trump publicly criticizes geopolitical betting, calling "the world a casino," but in reality, there are continuous cases of "precise timing" trades, raising market concerns over policy leaks and potential manipulation.

The latest case shows that a U.S. soldier involved in the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro placed bets of over $33k on the prediction market Polymarket hours before Trump announced the operation, ultimately making over $400k in profit. The soldier has now been arrested by U.S. authorities, and the case is classified as a typical "insider trading in prediction markets."

More attention is drawn to the "collective rush" in the commodities market. At multiple critical points, crude oil and stock index futures experienced huge trades minutes to hours before Trump announced policy shifts (ceasefire, delay strikes, etc.). For example:

· On April 7, around 3:45 PM Eastern Time, over 15 million barrels of crude oil futures (about $1.7 billion) were traded within two minutes. Three hours later, Trump announced a ceasefire, causing oil prices to plummet and stocks to rebound;
· On March 23, 16 minutes before he announced delaying the Iran strike, billions of dollars worth of crude oil and stock index futures had already been exchanged.

Chuanbao isn’t like a scam, haha, the king of insider trading.

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