Can the rebound in gold prices restart the upward trend? Analysts generally warn that there are still downside risks in the short term.

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Source: 财联社

财联社 March 31日讯 (Editor 马兰) On Tuesday, in Asian markets, gold prices briefly surged to 4,600 USD per ounce, further increasing hopes for a recovery. Since March 26, gold prices have been rising for multiple consecutive days.

Traders are watching the 100-day moving average of the gold price, at the price level of 4,624 USD per ounce—one that they believe could be a key reference for gold’s next move. Traders think gold needs to break through this level in order to turn the near-term recovery catalyst into a trend rebound; but if gold fails to hold the level, it may retest recent lows.

Overall, analysts are extremely uncertain about gold’s short-term performance and believe downside risk remains. Carley Garner, co-founder of DeCarley Trading, said that extreme market volatility and high margin requirements force many traders to stay on the sidelines, and many retail investors are also in a wait-and-see mode, which could create downward pressure in the near term.

She also said that the rapid price fluctuations in the futures and options markets make position management increasingly complicated. Even those traders who went short during this pullback found themselves accidentally on the wrong side due to how quickly the market reversed. In such conditions, leveraged trading activity is clearly reduced.

In addition, Garner emphasized that there have been panic-driven sell-offs by physical gold and ETF investors, causing more traders to avoid the market and further reducing market stability. Under this environment, it may be difficult for the gold market to recover the strong upward momentum seen at the beginning of the year.

Divergence

In Garner’s view, gold may attempt to rebound in the short term and could retest the prior resistance level, but any rebound is a selling opportunity. At present, crude oil remains the dominant force in the commodities market—whether people are trading gold, agricultural products, livestock, or something else, they are actually trading crude oil.

She even suggests that investors may be better off exiting the market temporarily, because in turbulent conditions most people are losing money, and choosing to stand by is a relatively good situation.

A Heraeus Precious Metals analyst also believes that the short-term trend for precious metals is still bearish, which is the consolidation phase after a sharp rally in January to record highs. Specifically, central banks in various countries have shifted from increasing their holdings to reducing them, weakening gold’s support factors; silver production has exceeded the level from the same period last year, bringing downward price pressure.

However, some analysts are relatively more optimistic, mainly because the conflict between Iran and the U.S. may be resolved in the short term, reopening the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut channel. Thu Lan Nguyen, Head of FX and Commodities Research at Commerzbank, expects the Iran-U.S. conflict to end before summer, and that the Federal Reserve will cumulatively cut rates by 75 basis points by mid-next year.

Based on this expectation, the bank projects that this year’s gold price will close at around 5,000 USD per ounce, and by the end of next year it will reach 5,200 USD per ounce. The silver price is expected to rise to 90 USD per ounce before year-end, and climb to 95 USD per ounce by the end of next year.

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责任编辑：赵思远