I just realized something interesting while tracking the crypto market recently. Bitcoin is following a pretty clear cycle, and there’s an old theory from the 19th century that still seems to be effective today. That is the Chu kỳ Benner, developed by Samuel Benner—a former American farmer and businessman.

Samuel Benner wasn’t a professional economist, but after going through financial difficulties in his farming career, he began to investigate why markets have such repeating cycles. After burning through his capital a few times, Samuel Benner decided to research more deeply the nature of recessions and booms. As a result, in 1875, he published the book "Benner's Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices"—a pioneering work on forecasting market cycles.

What Samuel Benner discovered is extremely simple but effective. He divided the market into three types of years: panic years ( about every 18-20 years ), a good year to sell at the price peak, and a good year to buy at the bottom. These predictions include years such as 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019 as panic years, while 1926, 1945, 1962, 1980, 2007 are years to sell. Samuel Benner predicted 2026 as a good year to sell, and years such as 1931, 1942, 1958, 1985, 2012 are times to accumulate assets.

The great thing here is that Bitcoin is also following a similar cycle. Bitcoin’s four-year halving pushes it through rally and correction phases that are very similar to what Samuel Benner described. When the crypto market explodes upward, everyone gets excited and buys in, and then panic and sell-offs follow. It repeats again and again.

For anyone trading crypto, understanding this cycle can be very valuable. You can use the "sell" years to exit positions and lock in profits when the market is at the peak, and use the "buy" years to accumulate Bitcoin or Ethereum at lower prices. While it’s not always exactly 100%, Samuel Benner’s theory provides an intriguing roadmap for understanding the market.

What’s wonderful is that Samuel Benner’s legacy is still very much alive today. Instead of viewing the market as random, we can see that it follows predictable patterns based on human behavior. By combining these insights with financial psychology, you can develop a stronger trading strategy—taking advantage of both panic periods and times of exuberance. That’s why anyone interested in the cryptocurrency market should know about Samuel Benner and his cycle.