Iran Conflict | United Nations estimates Arab countries could lose up to $1.5 trillion

The Middle East military conflict has entered its fifth week. The latest assessment report from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) shows that the potential escalation of the situation in the Middle East in the near term could cause losses of $120 billion to $194 billion to Arab countries, equivalent to about HK$936 billion to HK$1.51 trillion, or 3.7% to 6% of these countries’ gross domestic product (GDP).

The report says the losses may exceed the accumulated 2025 GDP growth of Arab countries. It is estimated to result in the loss of 3.6 million jobs, raising the regional unemployment rate by up to 4 percentage points, and pushing more than 4 million people into poverty.

The report also states that this crisis has served as a warning to countries in the region, prompting them to fundamentally reassess the strategic choices behind their fiscal, industrial, and social policy decisions. The research findings indicate that countries in the region need to strengthen regional cooperation to achieve economic diversification, break away from reliance on fossil fuel–driven growth, expand production bases, ensure the security of trade and logistics systems, and broaden economic partnerships—thereby reducing the risks of being affected by shocks and conflicts.