Chief economists of the five major financial institutions discuss economic trends: Q1 GDP growth is expected to reach around 5%.

2026 is the starting year of the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan Period.” Since this year began, various regions and departments in China have earnestly implemented more proactive and effective macro policies, focusing on leveraging the integrated effects of both stock and incremental policies. Economic activity has gotten off to a strong start, with a good opening.

Five chief economists interviewed by reporters from The Securities Daily generally believe that the year-on-year GDP growth rate in the first quarter is expected to reach around 5%, and that the Chinese economy will deliver a strong “good start to the year.” Macro policies will closely track the annual target tasks, with more proactive and effective, coordinated and targeted efforts.

“Our economy is showing a trend of a strong start and a good opening. Major economic indicators have generally improved.” Mingming, Chief Economist at CITIC Securities, said in an interview with reporters from The Securities Daily. From January to February, the value-added of industries above a designated size increased by 6.3% year-on-year. Fixed-asset investment has shifted from decline to growth: infrastructure investment recorded a high year-on-year increase of 11.4%, reflecting an ongoing favorable investment trend. Taken together, the economy in the first quarter is expected to achieve growth close to 5%.

“Forecast: in the first quarter of 2026, GDP will grow by 4.9%.” Wu Chao, Chief Economist of Sinotech Holdings and Deputy Director of the Sinotech Research Institute, told reporters that the economy at the start of the year has gotten off strongly, showing the characteristics of “strong production, strong exports, higher investment, and stable consumption.” Driven jointly by the cumulative effects of “stabilize growth” policies and structural growth in external demand, the economy in the first quarter is expected to achieve a “good start to the year.”

“In the first quarter, market demand increased somewhat due to consumption boosted by the Spring Festival. The CPI rose in stages. Consumption growth was also boosted in tandem. Overall national economic operations are steady, and we expect the first-quarter GDP growth rate to be around 5%.” Yang Delong, Chief Economist at Qianhai Openyuan Fund, said.

Chen Li, Assistant President and Chief Economist, and Head of the Research Institute at Chuan Cai Securities, said that in the first quarter China’s macro economy has gotten off strongly and opened well. Key indicators have stabilized; the structure continues to optimize; market expectations improve. Industrial production accelerates in its recovery. The equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing show strong growth momentum. The consumer market grows steadily. The level of prices rises moderately. Employment and people’s livelihoods are well protected. New quality productive forces are being accelerated in cultivation and expansion. Economic performance demonstrates a good trend of making progress while staying stable and improving in the process of moving forward. This provides a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target.

The 2026 Government Work Report proposes that “the main expected development goals this year are: economic growth of 4.5%–5%, and in actual work we will strive to achieve even better results,” and at the same time specifies “implement more proactive and effective macro policies, and enhance the foresight, targeted nature, and policy coordination.”

Chen Li expects that macro policies will always stay tightly aligned with the annual target tasks, with more proactive and effective, coordinated and precise efforts. Fiscal policy will step up its impact and improve efficiency, accelerate the rollout and effectiveness of ultra-long-term special government bonds and policy-based financial instruments, expand effective investment, and promote consumption growth. It will uphold a moderately loose monetary policy to stabilize growth, employment, and prices, keep liquidity reasonably ample, and reduce overall financing costs. Meanwhile, it will strengthen coordinated linkages among policies in industry, science and technology, employment, regions, and more, focusing on expanding domestic demand, deepening reform, preventing risks, and improving expectations. It will work to unblock choke points in the economic cycle, promote the additive and multiplicative effects of stock policies and incremental policies, fully consolidate the favorable foundation for economic growth, and strive hard to achieve even better development outcomes.

Mingming said that on the fiscal front, efforts will speed up the implementation of special-purpose bond issuance progress and increase the proportion used for project construction. Major projects under the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan Period” will also be advanced earlier in the schedule. In boosting domestic demand, efforts will accelerate the implementation of income-increase plans for urban and rural residents, as well as promote domestic-demand-focused special funds through coordination between fiscal and financial sectors. On the monetary policy front, it will maintain a moderately loose stance and appropriately lower reserve requirement ratios and interest rates to release liquidity support. In addition, it will also use structural monetary policy tools to focus on driving development in areas such as domestic demand and technology.

Wen Bin, Chief Economist at Minsheng Bank, said that it is expected that this year fiscal expenditures will continue to be kept at a fairly large scale, and that structural monetary policy tools will continue to be optimized and innovated, with the efforts to expand domestic demand clearly increasing.

(Source: The Securities Daily)