Exclusive interview with Tianqi Lithium董事兼总裁 Xia Juncheng: From 2026 to 2035, global lithium demand is set for rapid growth

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As we enter March 2026, the global lithium battery industry is in a delicate phase of supply-demand negotiation and rule reshaping. On one side, Zimbabwe’s lithium mine export policy is still undecided, with uncertainties on the supply side continuing to grow; on the other side, energy storage cell shipments are expected to see a year-on-year increase of over 50% this year, which alone will bring at least 150,000 tons of additional lithium carbonate demand. Amidst this supply-demand mismatch, expectations for lithium prices are warming up again.

Recently, reporters from the “Daily Economic News” (hereinafter referred to as NBD) interviewed Xia Junsheng, the director and president of Tianqi Lithium. Xia detailed the supply-demand trends for the next decade, believing that from 2026 to 2035, global lithium demand will be on a clear upward trajectory, with rapid growth becoming a certainty.

In light of the current supply chain’s most challenging issue of “pricing inversion” and increasingly strict global ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) scrutiny, how should Chinese companies shift from “passively responding to audits” to “actively managing”? He calls for more self-discipline in the industry, to build a diversified unified pricing system that allows prices to be fair and beneficial to producers, consumers, and investors.

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NBD: How do you view the current and future supply-demand landscape?

Xia Junsheng: Regarding the current market situation, what we see is a phase of supply-demand mismatch. On the supply side, according to the latest data from Mysteel, as of March 19, 2026, the domestic tradable inventory of lithium carbonate is only 100,000 tons, down from about 250,000 tons at the end of January. Meanwhile, the Zimbabwe lithium mine export policy has not fundamentally changed; if this situation continues to develop, lithium carbonate production in April and May may decline due to the impact of concentrate supply. On the demand side, various institutions have reported feedback that downstream cathode material factories are in an expansion cycle, with new lithium iron phosphate capacity exceeding 2 million tons. Recently, lithium prices have fallen to around 140,000 yuan/ton, directly triggering a proactive stocking sentiment among buyers. In this phase of supply-demand mismatch, market expectations for a rebound in lithium prices are rising again.

In addition to the short-term fundamentals, we must look at the next decade. We have compiled forecast data from multiple institutions; although the sample collection varies, the overall trend is highly consistent: from 2026 to 2035, global lithium demand is on a clear upward path, and rapid growth is a certainty.

NBD: Energy storage is a significant increment; how substantial is its specific driving force?

Xia Junsheng: Energy storage is indeed one of the strongest engines on the demand side currently. The shipment data for energy storage cells provided by various institutions for 2025 varies: TrendForce estimates around 650 GWh, InfoLink reports about 612 GWh, and SNE’s data is around 550 GWh. The expected increment for this year also differs among institutions, but the mainstream expectation remains a year-on-year growth of over 50%, with energy storage cell shipments expected to exceed 900 GWh. Assuming a conservative increment estimate of 250 GWh this year, calculated based on 600 tons of lithium carbonate (LCE) consumed per GWh, the increase in energy storage cells alone corresponds to at least 150,000 tons of year-on-year demand increment for LCE. This does not include additional demand from emerging fields like AI data centers and the low-altitude economy.

NBD: By the end of December 2025, several leading cathode material companies collectively issued announcements for production halts and maintenance. How do you view the “pricing inversion” issue?

Xia Junsheng: This is the most painful issue faced by the entire lithium battery industry chain right now, and it is a problem I particularly want to call attention to today. China accounts for over 70% of global lithium salt supply and demand, with over 90% of cathode material capacity located in China. The Chinese market is leading globally, and the trading of lithium carbonate futures and spot markets is extremely active.

However, the problem is that the pricing game rules across our entire industry chain are not unified. Between upstream mines and lithium salt plants, the pricing method often used is “futures spot pricing + premiums,” seeking to find a premium through the highly liquid futures market. However, downstream cell factories usually require cathode material producers to settle raw material prices based on the “monthly average price quoted by domestic spot price agencies” in order to pursue cost stability.

This leads to a serious structural divergence: the spot prices quoted by institutions do not completely align with futures prices. The intermediate processing segment is caught in a “squeeze”—when futures prices are higher than spot prices, their raw material procurement costs are linked to futures, while product sales must anchor to spot agency quotes. We observed that many production halts occurred in the cathode material sector in December 2025, which we understand is somewhat correlated with the pricing inversion and profit-loss situation in that sector. If this pricing mechanism inversion persists long-term, it will lead to unbalanced profit distribution.

NBD: In the face of this pricing mechanism, what specific strategies does Tianqi Lithium have to break the deadlock?

Xia Junsheng: We advocate for the construction of a diversified pricing system. We cannot rely solely on one type or one agency’s quotation but should introduce multidimensional pricing agency samples, comprehensively considering futures settlement prices and actual transaction volumes to explore a market transaction price that can smooth the basis between futures and spot markets.

Our goal is to reshape the distribution logic of the industry chain, mitigate irrational price disparities, and repair the imbalance of profit distribution. Only when everyone operates under a fair, transparent, and unified game rule, promoting the deep integration of the futures and spot markets, can this industry return to a healthy and sustainable development track.

NBD: Overseas companies are facing increasingly strict ESG audits; how is Tianqi Lithium responding?

Xia Junsheng: This is a very core and practical issue. In the past, the supply chain faced penetrating ESG due diligence and product traceability from downstream customers, often responding “passively” to audits. In 2025, a total of 41 customers initiated 78 due diligence requests to Tianqi, an increase of 95% compared to 2024, with audits regarding product carbon footprints increasing by 67%. This certification pressure is cascading up the supply chain.

The reality is that ESG management costs are quantifiable but have not been reflected in current product pricing. Tianqi’s approach is to transform passivity into proactivity. We call for an exploration of the transition from qualitative to quantitative aspects in the new energy supply chain, achieving a closed loop of “ESG quality and pricing” within the supply chain network, transforming ESG investments from a mere “cost item” into a “value item,” and rejecting the concept of bad money driving out good.

NBD: How do you view the industry’s adjustments over the past few years?

Xia Junsheng: After experiencing a few years of rapid growth followed by deep adjustments, we need more industry self-discipline. Blind expansion will only lead to severe market clearing. We need to control increments, optimize existing capacities, and eliminate backward production capacities through technological upgrades.

I would like to conclude with a quote from Ali Al Naimi, the former oil minister of Saudi Arabia: “Any price must be good for the Producers, the Consumers and the Investors.”

Cover image source: Every Media Asset Library