Here Is What RBC Capital Expects from Tesla’s Q1 Deliveries

Electric vehicle (EV) maker Tesla (TSLA) is scheduled to announce its Q1 2026 deliveries soon. Investors will closely monitor the update, given that the Elon Musk-led company’s deliveries have declined for two consecutive years amid intense competition, lack of innovation, and a slowdown in the EV market. Ahead of the update, RBC Capital analyst Tom Narayan reiterated a Buy rating on TSLA stock with a price target of $500.

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The analyst expects Tesla to report Q1 2026 deliveries of 367,000, which he highlighted is below the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of 369,000. Narayan’s estimate reflects 9% year-over-year growth.

Meanwhile, on Thursday, Tesla stock declined after the EV maker published a company-compiled delivery consensus of sell-side analysts, which revealed estimated deliveries of 365,645 and 1,689,691 vehicles for Q1 2026 and full-year 2026, respectively. The full-year estimate reflects a downward revision from the nearly 1.75 million estimate in December.

While the consensus estimate for Q1 2026 indicates 8.6% year-over-year growth, it should be noted that the prior-year quarter was adversely impacted by the shutdown of Model Y production lines as the company transitioned to a refreshed Juniper Model Y.

RBC Weighs in on Tesla’s Q1 Deliveries

Narayan expects Tesla’s U.S. deliveries in Q1 2026 to decline compared to the prior-year quarter due to the expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit. Moreover, he expects Q1 2026 deliveries to fall sequentially due to seasonality.

The 4-star analyst thinks that Tesla’s discontinuation of Model S and X in the second quarter of 2026 reflects a “strategic pivot” toward robotaxis and humanoids and could weigh on the company’s private vehicle sales in the times ahead.

That said, Narayan expects persistently elevated fuel costs amid the U.S.-Iran conflict to support near-term EV demand, potentially driving an upside for Tesla.

Is Tesla Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Wall Street is divided on Tesla stock, with a Hold consensus rating based on 13 Buys, 11 Holds, and seven Sell recommendations. The average TSLA stock price target of $399.33 indicates 10.4% upside potential. TSLA stock has declined more than 19% year-to-date.

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