Xinhua Index Monitoring: Disappointing Orange Juice Factory Prices Fluctuate and Weaken, and the Navel Orange Production Area Prices in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area Begin to Decline

Why Does Climate Warming Put Pressure on the Prices of Three Gorges Navel Oranges?

Cover News Reporter Meng Mei Yi Yili

Recently, the increase in Brazilian orange juice production is comparable to the expected increase in orange juice consumption in the United States. The share of non-concentrated reconstituted orange juice in the Americas market continues to rise. Egypt’s sweet orange production has increased, and the proportion of orange juice processing has also risen. China’s orange juice production capacity has slightly increased, and the demand for orange juice reserves has grown.

On March 26, according to monitoring by Xinhua Index, as temperatures fluctuated and rebounded, the wholesale prices of fresh citrus fruits in domestic markets continued to decline; the factory price of orange juice, which did not meet sales expectations, weakened, leading to a decline in the prices of navel oranges from the Three Gorges area.

As of March 19, the average settlement price of global frozen concentrated orange juice futures contracts (FCOJ2605) for the week was 193.94 cents/pound (equivalent to 29,569.92 yuan/ton), an increase of 3.11% compared to the previous week (March 12, same below); the Xinhua National Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice Factory Price Index reported 1,030.60 points, down 0.34% week-on-week; the Xinhua National Non-Concentrated Reconstituted Orange Juice Factory Price Index reported 1,147.08 points, down 0.77% week-on-week; the Xinhua National Orange Juice Factory Price Index was 1,075.27 points, down 0.51% week-on-week.

Xinhua National Orange Juice Factory Price Index Trend Chart

Data Source: Xinhua Index Research Institute

Note: Based on price data reflecting market patterns, the index base period is adjusted to December 2025, with a base point of 1,000 points; combined with the production data of frozen concentrated orange juice from China’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA-FAS) report and the non-concentrated reconstituted orange juice production data calculated by domestic industry organizations, the required processing fruit quantity is uniformly calculated at a ratio of 14:3, with fixed weights of 61.65%:38.35%.

National Citrus Wholesale Price Trend Chart

Data Source: Agricultural and Rural Affairs Ministry Information Center, Xinhua Index Research Institute

Domestic citrus production is steadily increasing, coupled with a decrease in the consumption of hard-to-peel fresh oranges and a shift in sales towards e-commerce platforms, which has put pressure on the prices at the production sites, resulting in relatively low prices for citrus in national markets; mainstream varieties have only seen price rebounds during the later stages of sales. Recently, the prices of various mainstream citrus varieties in national markets continued to weaken, with easy-to-store wide-skinned citrus and concentrated market listings of Wokan oranges experiencing the largest declines. Back at the production sites, the fluctuating rise in temperatures has posed challenges for the sale of Three Gorges area navel oranges, which are preserved on the tree, leading to weakening prices; the prices of Gannan navel oranges, nearing the end of the sales season, continued to run strong.

As of March 19, the average wholesale price of citrus in national markets was 6.28 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 1.34%. Among them, the average price for storable navel oranges was 7.54 yuan/kg, up 1.89% week-on-week; the average price for Murcott was 5.98 yuan/kg, down 3.24%; the average price for Wokan was 6.00 yuan/kg, down 3.85%; the average price for Shunjian tangerines was 7.60 yuan/kg, down 7.99%.

During the same period, data from the “Zhongxian Citrus Industry Brain” indicated that the production price for Wokan oranges in Wuming, Guangxi was 3.27 yuan/kg, down 0.31% week-on-week; Gannan navel oranges were 3.64 yuan/kg, up 0.55% week-on-week; Chongqing Fengjie navel oranges were 3.26 yuan/kg, down 0.49% week-on-week; Hubei Zigui navel oranges were 2.24 yuan/kg, down 0.25% week-on-week; Sichuan Pujiang Shunjian tangerines were 4.44 yuan/kg, down 3.06% week-on-week; Chongqing Zhongxian Murcott was 2.88 yuan/kg, up 0.88% week-on-week. The corresponding national production price for Newhall navel oranges fell 2.17% week-on-week; Shunjian tangerines fell 9.05% week-on-week, while Murcott remained stable with slight fluctuations. Currently, the fresh citrus production prices are under pressure, and the shipping prices may continue to weaken, leading to a decline in market prices.

• Future Market Analysis

At present, the processing proportion of domestic sweet oranges remains low at around 10%. Given the consumer market both domestically and globally is shifting towards more convenient and nutritious non-concentrated reconstituted orange juice, the domestic orange juice industry is still in a period of growth opportunities. Since the beginning of this year, domestic orange juice production and sales have increased, and prices remain relatively firm, while the consumption of hard-to-peel fresh oranges has decreased and prices are weak.

Past Five Years Orange Search Index Trend Chart

Data Source: Baidu Index, Xinhua Index Research Institute

The temperature is only fluctuating upwards, combined with the increase in terminal consumption of orange juice not meeting expectations, causing the internet search index for orange juice to fluctuate within a narrow range; during the same period, the internet search index for branded Fengjie navel oranges maintained an upward trend. Specifically, for the week, the average Baidu search index for Fengjie navel oranges was 237.43 points, up 1.16% week-on-week, but down 14.29% year-on-year (March 10, 2025, same below); the average Baidu search index for Gannan navel oranges was 222.71 points, down 8.40% week-on-week, and down 37.81% year-on-year; the average Baidu search index for national orange juice was 242.71 points, up 0.77% week-on-week, with the year-on-year decline expanding to 41.57%. During the same period, the price trends for frozen concentrated orange juice futures and spot prices diverged, with the futures-spot price difference expanding to 4,154.86 yuan/ton, up 18.21% week-on-week.

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice Futures-Spot Price Difference Trend Chart

Data Source: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Xinhua Index Research Institute

The Agricultural Market Research Center of Xinhua Index Research Institute assessed that “a spring rain brings warmth.” The fluctuating rise in temperatures continues to lead the wholesale prices of hard-to-store wide-skinned citrus to decline, and navel oranges with risk of sugar retreat will also comprehensively turn to decline; during the same period, the shipping prices of Zhongxian citrus, which mainly deals with mixed citrus, will also weaken. In the long term, the search index for orange juice is expected to continue to rise, and factory prices may turn to increase.