TC Energy Powers 2025 Forward: Safety Excellence Drives Record Flows and Strategic 1,041M Share Growth

TC Energy Corporation wrapped up 2025 with impressive momentum, setting the stage for accelerated expansion in North America’s energy infrastructure. The company’s unwavering focus on safety culture delivered tangible results: 15 all-time delivery records across its pipeline systems and strong financial gains, with comparable EBITDA climbing 13 percent quarter-over-quarter in Q4 and 9 percent for the full year. This performance underscores a disciplined strategy built on safety, operational reliability, and capital allocation discipline that positions the enterprise for sustained value creation.

Financial Momentum: Double-Digit Growth in Comparable EBITDA and Segmented Earnings

TC Energy’s financial engine hummed with vigor through 2025. Fourth quarter comparable EBITDA reached CAD 3.0 billion, up from CAD 2.6 billion in the prior year period, translating to comparable earnings of CAD 1.0 billion or CAD 0.98 per common share. For the twelve-month stretch, comparable EBITDA expanded to CAD 11.0 billion from CAD 10.0 billion in 2024, while segmented earnings remained steady at CAD 8.0 billion.

The company’s expanded shareholder base—1,041 million weighted average common shares outstanding during 2025—reflects stable ownership dynamics amid strategic capital deployment. CEO François Poirier highlighted that 98 percent of comparable EBITDA benefits from rate-regulated or long-term take-or-pay contract protections, providing visibility into cash flows largely shielded from commodity volatility.

Looking ahead, TC Energy projects 2026 comparable EBITDA in the CAD 11.6 to CAD 11.8 billion range, with capital deployment plans encompassing CAD 5.5 to CAD 6.0 billion in net capital expenditures. The company also affirmed its commitment to shareholders by approving a 3.2 percent increase in quarterly dividend, marking the 26th consecutive year of dividend growth. The new quarterly distribution of CAD 0.8775 per common share equates to CAD 3.51 on an annualized basis.

Operational Breakthrough: Safety Culture Fuels Record Deliveries and System Peaks

The intersection of rigorous safety practices and operational excellence produced remarkable results across TC Energy’s North American footprint. The company’s Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines system averaged 27.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in Q4, a five percent uptick year-over-year, while setting an all-time delivery record of 33.2 Bcf on January 22, 2026. The NGTL System specifically recorded a new peak of 18.3 Bcf on the same date.

U.S. Natural Gas Pipeline operations similarly surged, with daily average flows reaching 29.6 Bcf/d (up 9.5 percent versus Q4 2024) and an extraordinary all-time record of 39.9 Bcf on January 29, 2026. Deliveries to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities climbed 21 percent to an average of 3.9 Bcf/d, with a single-day peak approaching 4.4 Bcf in early December.

Mexico’s pipeline network moved an average 2.7 Bcf/d in the fourth quarter, representing roughly 20 percent of the country’s total gas demand. Power generation deliveries averaged 1.2 Bcf/d, up 11 percent compared to the prior year quarter. Bruce Power, TC Energy’s nuclear asset in Ontario, achieved 85.7 percent availability during Q4 2025 (reflecting a planned outage) and is expected to deliver low-90s percent availability throughout 2026 as the facility supports Canada’s clean energy transition.

Project Execution Excellence: Strategic Capital Deployment Drives Infrastructure Growth

TC Energy’s track record in executing capital-intensive projects solidified during 2025. The company successfully brought CAD 8.3 billion of projects into commercial service on schedule and more than 15 percent under budget—a testament to disciplined engineering and construction management.

Recent completions include the VR project on the Columbia system (delivered in November 2025 with approximately USD 0.5 billion in total cost) and the WR project on the ANR System in Wisconsin (placed in service November 2025, approximately USD 0.7 billion). The ANR Storage Optimization project also commenced operations, enhancing system flexibility to respond to surging power demand in the U.S. Midwest.

Looking ahead to 2026, the company plans to place approximately CAD 4 billion of capital into service, anchored by the Bison XPress Project on the Northern Border Pipeline, the completion of Valhalla North and Berland River projects on the NGTL System, and Bruce Power Unit 3 as part of the ongoing Major Component Replacement (MCR) program.

Growth Drivers: Data Centres and LNG Exports Reshape North American Energy Demand

The fundamental tailwinds propelling TC Energy’s strategic expansion reflect seismic shifts in continental energy consumption. The company forecasts North American natural gas demand will surge approximately 45 Bcf/d by 2035, reaching roughly 170 Bcf/d from 2025 levels. This expansion stems from three powerful vectors: accelerating LNG export volumes destined for global markets, rising power generation capacity (particularly from data centres), and reinforced reliability mandates from local distribution companies.

These trends translate directly into TC Energy’s project pipeline. In January 2026, the company successfully concluded a non-binding open season on the Columbia Gas Transmission system for up to 0.5 Bcf/d of incremental capacity serving the Columbus area and New Albany. Robust bidding interest—generating approximately 1.5 Bcf/d of total proposals, triple the proposed project size—validates the strength of regional demand dynamics. In early February 2026, TC Energy launched a second expansion open season on its Crossroads Pipeline system for up to 1.5 Bcf/d, targeting Northern Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, and South Dakota markets fueled by data centre proliferation and announced power generation facilities.

Disciplined Growth Strategy: $6 Billion Capital Envelope and Build Multiple Targeting

TC Energy maintains confidence in deploying the full CAD 6.0 billion annual net capital expenditure envelope through 2030, with potential to exceed this level thereafter. The company targets build multiples (capital expenditure divided by comparable EBITDA) in the five to seven times range, a framework ensuring disciplined returns on invested capital.

During Q4, the company sanctioned CAD 0.6 billion of in-corridor expansion projects, including CAD 0.5 billion in MYGP (Multi-Year Growth Plan) facilities designed for the NGTL System with an anticipated 2028 in-service date, and a CAD 0.1 billion equity contribution supporting a brownfield compression expansion in the U.S. The Cedar Link project continues tracking ahead of schedule and below its CAD 1.2 billion board-approved budget.

26-Year Dividend Commitment and Strategic Outlook for the Decade Ahead

TC Energy’s dividend policy embodies confidence in long-term cash generation. The newly approved 3.2 percent quarterly distribution increase marks the 26th uninterrupted year of dividend enhancement—a hallmark of financial discipline and shareholder alignment. The common share dividend is payable April 30, 2026, to shareholders of record on March 31, 2026.

As TC Energy navigates 2026 and beyond, the company remains anchored to its strategic priorities: maximizing asset value through safety and operational excellence, executing a selective portfolio of growth projects, and maintaining financial strength alongside strategic flexibility. With visibility to sustained demand growth, a disciplined capital allocation framework, and a proven execution track record, TC Energy is positioned to capture meaningful opportunities across the fastest-growing energy segments—natural gas and power—through the remainder of this decade and beyond.