[US Stock Market Close] Dow Jones rises 238 points, Nasdaq up 1.3%; Yellen denies indirectly urging US talks; Fed Board Member Mester supports continued rate cuts

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that the government will introduce a series of measures to stabilize oil transportation in the Persian Gulf, indicating U.S. intention to intervene in the Strait of Hormuz, which has been blocked by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Meanwhile, Iran denies indirectly engaging in negotiations with the U.S.

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Market risk sentiment slightly cooled, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average initially rising by up to 352 points, closing up 238 points at 48,739; S&P 500 at 6,869, up 0.78%; Nasdaq at 22,807, up 1.29%.

In focus stocks, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said that the plan to invest $100 billion in OpenAI may no longer be feasible. Nvidia rose 1.66%.

Tesla increased by 3.4%, and Broadcom reported earnings after Wednesday’s close, with the stock up 1.2%.

The Federal Reserve released the “Beige Book,” indicating that in seven of the twelve districts, overall economic activity grew at a slight to moderate pace; five districts reported flat or declining activity, up from four previously.

President Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair. Fed Governor Stephen Miran said he believes continued rate cuts are still appropriate, and it is too early to assess the impact of the Middle East war on the U.S. economy.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin stated that a U.S. submarine sank an Iranian warship in international waters. This is the first attack on a surface vessel by a U.S. submarine since World War II.

Oman reported that a Maltese-flagged cargo ship, the SAFEEN PRESTIGE, was hit by two missiles in the Strait of Hormuz. Turkey said NATO shot down an Iranian missile headed toward Turkish airspace.

The New York Times reported that on the second day of the attack, Iranian intelligence personnel indirectly contacted the CIA to discuss ending the conflict. An American official familiar with the contact expressed skepticism about whether the Trump administration or Iran is truly ready to seek a de-escalation mechanism.

Markets are watching Iran’s successor candidate’s stance and whether the U.S. and Israel will escalate bombing.

However, media quoted an Iranian intelligence official as saying that reports of such contacts are complete lies and part of psychological warfare during wartime.

Oil prices sharply narrowed their gains, with the U.S. dollar index retreating 0.28% to 98.78. Bitcoin briefly surged 9.8% to $74,051.

Supported by buying on dips, spot gold rebounded 2.31%, reaching a high of $5,206.2 per ounce; U.S. long-term bond yields stabilized at around 4.101%.

DWS estimates that Iran’s crude oil production in January 2026 will be 3.13 million barrels per day, accounting for about 4% of global supply. Due to short-term supply and demand inflexibility, even slight reductions in supply can drive oil prices sharply higher. Whether prices can stabilize later depends on whether OPEC can fill the supply gap in time. However, Darwei Kung, head of commodities at the firm, said, “OPEC’s current idle capacity is only about half of Iran’s total production.”

He added that if airstrikes cause ships to sink in the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping route could be closed for months, causing long-term supply disruptions. Compared to airstrikes alone, ground offensives would cause even greater damage to supply. Therefore, whether the Strait’s shipping is restricted or fully blocked, it could severely impact oil supply.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating; details on the next page.

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Market live updates:

【21:30】【Iran Crisis】A cargo ship forced into the Strait of Hormuz caught fire after being attacked

【21:00】【Oil Price Trend】How much would oil prices rise if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for weeks?

【19:00】Oil and gold prices continue to rise; Dow futures up 45 points, Nasdaq futures up 0.2%

【13:35】Dow futures down 225 points at 48,335; S&P futures down 41 points; Nasdaq futures down 212 points or 0.9% at 24,543

【12:32】US Stock Analysis｜Iran Situation Impacted Dow Jones Nearly 1,300 Points — Focus on Telecom Stocks and a Stock to Watch

【11:59】【Oil Price Analysis】Oil surged another 1% to high levels; Trump administration providing insurance for oil tankers; analysis: NY crude oil at $80 faces strong resistance

【11:45】【Iran Crisis】Middle East tensions shake Asia-Pacific markets; South Korea’s stock market drops over 9%, triggering circuit breakers; Japanese stocks fall over 2,000 points

【11:31】【AI + Models】OpenAI releases GPT-5.3 Instant, offering more accurate and smoother conversational experience

【10:21】【Gold Price Trend】Gold and silver sharply declined then rebounded; gold in Asia surpasses $5,100; silver rebounds 3% to $85

【08:49】【Iran Crisis】Fed officials say war adds new uncertainties to monetary policy; energy prices become a key factor

【07:23】【Iran Crisis】Trump: Cutting trade with Spain, ending the war, oil prices will be lower than before

【06:51】【Iran Crisis】Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps: Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for 3 weeks, global economy faces serious crisis (ongoing updates)

Below $1 for March 3 U.S. stock market overview====

Tuesday: Trump offers insurance guarantees + naval escort for oil tankers; Dow only down 403 points

Fourth day of Iran conflict, stock market moves follow Iran’s situation; due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surged 9.5%, reaching $77.98; Dow dropped as much as 1,277 points or 2.6%, low at 47,626; S&P fell 2.5%, low at 6,710; Nasdaq fell 2.7%, low at 22,124.

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Trump announced that he has ordered the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide political risk insurance and guarantees at very reasonable prices for all maritime trade (especially energy) passing through the Gulf region. This service will be available to all shipping companies.

He also said that if necessary, the U.S. Navy will begin escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible.

“Regardless, the U.S. will ensure that energy supplies to the world flow freely. The U.S.’s economic and military strength is the strongest on Earth — more actions are coming.”

The U.S. dollar index briefly rose 1.3%, then settled at a gain of 0.7%, at 99.04. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains around 4%.

Gold prices remain under pressure, down 4.3%, at $5,094.87; silver down 8%, at $82.23.

Manulife notes that global bond yields have recently risen, possibly reflecting market concerns about a resurgence of inflation and worries over future central bank decisions. However, if the conflict persists for more than a few weeks, its impact on markets and the economy could become more significant.

Pictet Wealth Management in Switzerland states that in the very short term, the Iran war will be negative for stocks, as markets digest the overall increase in geopolitical uncertainty and soaring oil prices. However, history shows that such negative impacts are usually short-lived, and investors should continue prioritizing tangible assets—including gold, metals, and other commodities.

The firm suggests that if the conflict remains short-term, oil prices could fall back to pre-crisis levels, and the overall macroeconomic impact would remain limited. However, in the short term, central banks may adopt a more cautious stance. The Fed might delay future rate cuts, depending on the duration and severity of the conflict. As long as the scope of the conflict remains limited, the dollar could strengthen temporarily, given the U.S.’s relative energy independence. If new oil shocks occur, markets might see the U.S. as more resilient than Asian countries that are heavily dependent on oil imports.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating; details on the next page.

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Market live updates:

【13:27】Dow futures down 336 points at 48,609; S&P futures down 49 points at 6,839; Nasdaq futures down 215 points or 0.9% at 24,809

【11:41】【Iran Crisis】Franklin D. Roosevelt CEO: As long as other Middle Eastern countries do not retaliate, the conflict is unlikely to last more than five weeks

【11:19】【Iran Crisis】Oil surged another 1% early; analysis: the conflict is unlikely to last long; NY crude oil at $70–75, gold to retreat after easing

【10:50】【AI + Competition】OpenAI users launch boycott; Anthropic Claude surpasses ChatGPT, becomes top app on US Apple App Store

【10:46】【AI + Defense】Sam Altman: Adding clauses with the Department of Defense; clarifying AI cannot be used for surveillance of U.S. citizens; OpenAI services will not be used by defense intelligence units

【10:36】【U.S. Tariffs】U.S. Court of Appeals rejects government’s request to delay tariff refunds; refunds can be processed quickly

【10:10】【AI Frontline】Elon Musk’s X and xAI reportedly planning to raise $17.5 billion to pay off debt

【09:02】【Iran Crisis】Liu: Planning to curb oil prices; Trump administration reportedly has no plans to use strategic petroleum reserves for now

【08:39】【Fed Rate Cuts】Yellen: Iran crisis adds uncertainty to U.S. economy and inflation; energy prices are a key factor

【08:19】【U.S. Economy】JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon warns inflation could be a “party pooper” for the U.S. economy after “cockroach theory”

【08:08】【AI + Nvidia Chips】U.S. considers restricting Nvidia H200 chips; limit of 75,000 units per Chinese company

【07:25】【Iran Crisis】Trump: Four main targets in Iran; U.S. Defense Department reports firing tens of thousands of missiles over two days, including ground-launched missiles from the U.S. (ongoing updates)

Below $1 for March 2 U.S. stock market overview====

Monday: Trump’s insurance guarantees + naval escort for oil tankers; Dow only down 521 points

On the fourth day of the Iran war, stock movements follow Iran’s situation; due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surged 9.5%, reaching $77.98; Dow fell as much as 1,277 points or 2.6%, low at 47,626; S&P dropped 2.5%, low at 6,710; Nasdaq fell 2.7%, low at 22,124.

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Trump held a press conference stating that the initial estimate for the war duration is 4 to 5 weeks, but the current progress is far ahead of schedule. For example, they initially estimated it would take 4 weeks to dismantle Iran’s military leadership, but in fact, the U.S. achieved this in about an hour. Overall, the progress has exceeded expectations. However, he did not set a time limit, saying, “It doesn’t matter how long it takes. Whatever is needed, we will do it.”

Israel and the U.S. continue bombing. Due to ongoing war, European and Middle Eastern countries are mediating a ceasefire, reducing war risk premiums. The U.S. dollar index rose 1%, to 98.55; gold surged 2.7%, reaching a high of $5,419.11, then settled at $5,325, up 0.9%. Spot silver fell sharply by 7.7%, to $86.54. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains high at 4.03%.

Under the shadow of war, the Dow once fell 599 points to a low of 48,377, then recovered to close down 73 points at 48,904; the S&P gained 2 points to 6,881; Nasdaq rose 0.4% to 22,748.

Oil prices soared, with Brent crude up 13% to a high of $82.37, closing at $78.12; NY crude oil rose 12.4% to a high of $75.33, closing at $71.33.

In focus stocks, global markets were generally affected by turbulence, but Palantir (NYSE: PLTR) surged 5.8% as its Ontology technology integrates satellite imagery, communication monitoring records, and other information to significantly improve decision-making during the US-Iran conflict.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said that the timing of military actions against Tehran will be decided by President Trump.

Invesco’s global research head Benjamin Jones expects that stock markets will decline in the short term after the conflict, but the subsequent trend depends on how the situation develops. Most impacts are expected to be reflected through rising oil prices. Cyclical and consumer sectors may be hit harder, while defense, energy leaders, and gold mining stocks are expected to benefit from geopolitical shocks.

Key data this week will focus on February unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating; details on the next page.

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Market live updates:

【22:30】Iran crisis drags down stocks, Dow down 495 points, Nasdaq down 1.3%; Palantir up 3% against the trend

【18:10】Iran crisis causes Dow futures to fall 570 points, Nasdaq futures down 1.3%; oil surged 10%, gold back above $5,400

【15:44】NY crude oil up 8.6% to $72.79; Brent crude down 9.1% to $79.49

【15:28】Dow futures down 640 points at 48,360; S&P futures down 94 points at 6,794; Nasdaq futures down 438 points or 1.8% at 24,566

【12:31】Dow futures down 369 points at 48,631; S&P futures down 50 points at 6,838; Nasdaq futures down 206 points or 0.8% at 24,798

【11:52】【Iran Crisis】Juncao Henderson Investment: Current oil prices reflect a “limited scale, short duration” conflict scenario

【11:48】【Iran Crisis】UAE stock market closed for two days; UAE government announces full coverage of stranded travelers’ expenses

【11:25】【Iran Crisis】Middle East conflict disrupts energy markets; economists warn of increased global risks; the most affected countries…

【10:50】【Iran Crisis】If the Strait of Hormuz closes for a month, Goldman Sachs warns European natural gas prices could surge 130%, crude oil could rise by $15

【10:09】【Major Bank Views】UBS downgrades U.S. stocks to “aligned with the market” for six reasons; continues to favor emerging markets and four key countries

【08:06】【Oil Price Trend】Iran crisis causes oil prices to surge; Brent up over 8%; Strait of Hormuz halt

【07:50】【Gold Price Trend】Gold up nearly 2%, back above $5,300; silver up over 2%, driven by Middle East war risk

【07:30】【Iran Crisis】Bloomberg estimates oil could rise 49%; Trump: Qasem Soleimani and three Americans dead, fighting continues until goals are achieved (ongoing updates)

【07:30】【Global Weekly Preview】Focus on geopolitical developments and U.S. employment data; February unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.3%

【07:30】U.S. stocks fell last Friday. Financial stocks plunged, with American Express down 8%, Goldman Sachs down 7%, dragging Dow down 521 points to 48,977; S&P down 0.4% to 6,878; AI stocks continued to be pressured, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) fell 4%, dragging Nasdaq down 0.9% to 22,668.

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