#JaneStreet10AMSellOff

Over the past several months, crypto traders and analysts have observed a recurring pattern in the market: Bitcoin often experienced predictable intraday sell-offs around 10 a.m. Eastern Time. Market participants began informally referring to this as the #JaneStreet10AMSellOff, suggesting that a large liquidity provider or market-making firm, widely believed to be Jane Street, might have been exerting systematic influence on intraday price movements. Whether or not this was the case, the perception itself had real effects on market psychology, trading behavior, and risk management strategies.
The significance of this pattern lies in its repetitive nature. For months, traders noticed Bitcoin rallying in the early hours of U.S. markets only to encounter predictable selling pressure near 10 a.m., which limited intraday highs and constrained short-term momentum. Institutional and algorithmic traders factored this into their strategies: some sold into the anticipated pressure, others timed re-entries just after it. Over time, this created a self-reinforcing expectation, where the market “preemptively” reacted to anticipated selling, even if no concrete proof of systematic activity existed.
On February 25–27, this pattern appeared to abruptly disappear, coinciding with news of an insider trading lawsuit involving Jane Street. While no confirmed evidence exists that Jane Street systematically sold Bitcoin at fixed times, the market reacted as if the expected intraday sell pressure had vanished. Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the $70,000 mark, Ethereum surged over 13%, and Solana jumped more than 15%, contributing to a roughly $170 billion increase in total crypto market capitalization. The overall crypto market cap approached $2.5 trillion, signaling that the disappearance of this perceived micro-level selling pressure had a magnified impact on broader market sentiment.
Why This Matters
Psychology of Market Participants: Crypto markets are highly sensitive to expectations. Even without proof, the idea that predictable selling had eased created renewed confidence. Traders who had previously held back entered positions aggressively, amplifying the rebound.
Liquidity Rebalancing: Intraday sell-offs often create temporary imbalances in order books. When these predictable sell-offs vanish, natural buying pressure can dominate, allowing markets to move with greater momentum and fewer interruptions.
Altcoin Momentum: Bitcoin often sets the tone for altcoins. As BTC reclaimed critical levels, Ethereum and Solana followed, with gains amplified by the return of risk appetite. The absence of the 10 a.m. sell-off may have allowed altcoins to benefit disproportionately, as capital rotated from BTC into high-beta assets.
Algorithmic and Institutional Reactions: Algorithmic trading systems often detect and react to predictable patterns. Once the market no longer behaved as expected, algorithms may have triggered additional buy-side orders, contributing to short-term volatility and reinforcing upward momentum.
Observations and Structural Insights
The $70,000 level for Bitcoin acted as both a psychological and technical barrier. Its brief reclaiming signifies that buyers were willing to absorb supply at higher prices, creating a temporary short squeeze.
Ethereum’s 13% rally and Solana’s 15% surge highlight how the broader crypto market responds to shifts in perceived liquidity behavior. Large intraday market participants influence both BTC and altcoin flows, and removing a predictable selling pattern can create a cascading effect across assets.
This event underscores that crypto price movements are not purely driven by fundamentals. Microstructure, liquidity expectations, and perception of institutional behavior can drive outsized short-term moves.
My Thoughts and Prediction
I view this development as a signal of shifting intraday dynamics, rather than a fundamental macro change. In the short term:
Bitcoin could consolidate above $70,000, with a potential short-term target toward $75,000–$78,000 if buying pressure persists.
Ethereum and Solana may continue benefiting from renewed momentum, likely adding 10–15% in their ranges as altcoins follow BTC’s lead.
If the market confirms that 10 a.m. sell-offs are no longer recurring, we may see a new intraday trend emerge, where traders and algorithms respond to previously unseen liquidity flows, creating more predictable upside opportunities.
Looking ahead into March and April 2026:
BTC could test $80,000, particularly if institutional inflows continue and macro liquidity conditions remain supportive.
Altcoins may outperform BTC in short bursts, given their higher beta and sensitivity to renewed risk appetite.
Market volatility is likely to remain elevated, as traders adjust strategies to account for the disappearance of the previously expected sell pattern.
Broader Implications
The #JaneStreet10AMSellOff episode demonstrates that crypto markets are highly sensitive to behavioral narratives. Even without concrete evidence, the expectation of predictable behavior or the removal of it can reshape market dynamics. This highlights an important lesson for traders: perception and liquidity expectations can be as powerful as fundamentals in determining price action, especially in markets that remain relatively concentrated and less mature than traditional financial markets.
In conclusion, the apparent disappearance of the 10 a.m. sell-off is more than just a curiosity it’s a case study in how microstructure, perception, and institutional behavior influence crypto markets. For traders and investors, understanding these nuances can be the difference between positioning correctly for momentum and being caught off guard by sudden intraday swings. While caution remains warranted, this development opens the door for more predictable intraday price behavior and potentially higher short-term returns.