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The Next Stop in the Cryptocurrency Market: From "Faith-Driven" to "Value Reversion"

Bitcoin has halved from its peak of $126,000 to around $60,000, and Ethereum has fallen below $2,000, with market sentiment hitting a freezing point. But this adjustment is different from any previous bear market — we are witnessing the deepest transformation in the crypto market: from "faith-driven" to "value reversion."

Old Narratives Are Failing

The narrative of "digital gold" has been shaken. Over the past year, Bitcoin has not broken out on its own but has become highly correlated with the Nasdaq index. It is no longer a safe-haven asset but another risk asset.

The expectation of an "institutional bull" has also fallen short. After spot ETF approvals, institutions did enter, but they also sell. Over the past few months, the net outflows from US Bitcoin ETFs have been substantial, and institutions are no longer the "saviors" that only buy and never sell.

The rule of "halving must lead to a price increase" has been broken. After the 2024 halving, Bitcoin did not rise but fell. The reason historical patterns are considered rules is because enough people believe in them. When everyone is waiting for a big surge after the halving, that rule fails prematurely.

New Logic Is Taking Shape

The market is shifting from "storytelling" to "data-driven analysis." Investors are no longer satisfied with visions in whitepapers; they want to see real users, real revenue, and real value.

DeFi protocols are starting to distribute dividends to token holders, with Aave injecting all product revenues into the DAO treasury; the total market cap of stablecoins is about to surpass $1 trillion, becoming a true payment tool; RWA tokenization has exceeded $17 billion, with traditional giants like JPMorgan and BlackRock entering the space.

These are the true "value" — not future expectations, but current outputs.

Market Is Reshuffling, Not Ending

Speculators are leaving, builders are staying. The rebound in exchange wallet balances indicates retail investors are selling; but long-term holders are starting to accumulate again, showing that smart money is absorbing positions.

This is a painful reshuffle, but also a necessary step toward market maturity. When leverage is unwound, when speculators are cleared out, and when narratives no longer dominate prices, what remains will be a healthier market.

Conclusion

The next stop for cryptocurrencies is not a super cycle, nor zeroing out, but returning to common sense — assets with real demand will survive, those without will be forgotten.

For investors, the greatest danger is not market declines but judging the future based on past logic. $BTC ‌$ETH ‌

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Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice.