Cryptocurrency Bull-Bear Battle: $65,000 Key Level, Which Way to Go—Left or Right?

In late February 2026, Bitcoin repeatedly oscillated between $65,000 and $67,000, with bulls and bears stuck in a stalemate. The hawkish FOMC minutes, U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions, and continuous outflows from ETF funds created triple pressure; however, technical indicators showed divergence signals at the bottom, and Ethereum's momentum quietly strengthened. The market stands at a critical crossroads. Based on the latest market data, this article analyzes the future trend from both bullish and bearish perspectives.

I. Shorting Logic: Downside Risks Under Triple Pressure

1. Technical Analysis: Head Formation Confirmed, C Wave Downside Risk Unresolved

From Elliott Wave perspective, Bitcoin has formed a double top near $109,000 and $126,000. Currently, it is in the B wave rebound of an ABC correction wave. If the B wave rebound cannot break through the resistance zone of $72,000–$74,000, the subsequent C wave decline could target the $40,000–$41,500 area, with an extreme test of $34,000. On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 34, remaining below the neutral 50 line, indicating accumulating bearish momentum. More critically, Bitcoin has broken below the previous support at $72,000, which has now turned into a strong resistance. As long as the weekly close remains below this level, any rebound should be viewed as a corrective rally rather than a reversal.

2. Macro Perspective: Hawkish Fed Suppression, Dollar Strengthening Pressures Risk Assets

The FOMC minutes released on February 19th showed policymakers' growing concerns about inflation, with some officials hinting at possible rate hikes, further delaying expectations of rate cuts in 2026. The US dollar index has risen to a two-week high of 97.7, directly suppressing risk assets like Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Trump's tariff rhetoric reignited macro tightening expectations. If trade policies tighten further, the strengthening dollar and tightening financial conditions will form a double suppression, making Bitcoin's rebound momentum difficult to sustain.

3. Capital Flows: Institutional Demand Continues to Cool, ETF Outflows Persist

SoSoValue data shows that the US spot Bitcoin ETF experienced a $133 million outflow on Wednesday, marking the second consecutive day of net outflows this week. The ongoing withdrawal of institutional funds reflects a risk-averse stance among traditional investors under the current macro environment. Additionally, US Senator Elizabeth Warren has publicly urged the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department not to use federal resources to bail out the crypto industry. These regulatory signals further dampen institutional willingness to enter the market.

II. Longing Logic: Technical Divergence and Narrative Shift Offer Potential Opportunities

1. Technical Analysis: Divergence Signals Emerge, Compression May Lead to Breakout

Despite price pressure, the MACD indicator on the daily chart formed a bullish crossover on Sunday, indicating upward momentum has not fully dissipated. More importantly, Bitcoin is currently oscillating narrowly between $65,000 and $67,000, which is essentially a process of energy accumulation for both bulls and bears—such compression often precedes a significant breakout. If the price can hold above $68,000, it may test resistance zones at $70,800–$73,000.

2. Narrative Perspective: Bitcoin's Dominance Weakening, Ethereum Leading Altcoin Season

Noted analyst Michaël van de Poppe tweeted: “BTC dominance seems to be breaking down, with lower highs forming, and this trend is likely to continue. I still see this more as an ETH bull market rather than a Bitcoin bull market.” Data shows Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market cap is gradually declining, possibly indicating funds flowing into Ethereum and other public chains. If ETH/BTC continues to strengthen, holding the $2,000 psychological level and showing resilience, the early arrival of the altcoin season could reverse the current bearish trend.

3. Fundamentals: AI Technology Deeply Integrates with Crypto, New Growth Logic Brewing

On a longer cycle, the crypto market is transitioning from “monetary experiments” to deeper integration with real-world industries. OpenAI and Paradigm jointly launched EVMbench, a smart contract security assessment tool, marking AI’s systemic penetration into blockchain core areas. South Korea’s defense conglomerate Hanwha Group invested $13 million in a Web3 infrastructure company focusing on RWA (Real-World Asset Tokenization), indicating industry capital is entering the space. While these fundamental changes may not immediately impact short-term prices, they lay the groundwork for the next growth cycle.

III. Bull-Bear Strategy Recommendations

Short Strategy: If Bitcoin effectively breaks below $65,700 support, consider short positions with the first target at $60,000 and the second at $52,000–$50,000. Set stop-loss above $72,000.

Long Strategy: If Bitcoin surges with volume and stabilizes above $68,000, consider a small long position with targets at $70,800–$73,000, and a breakout aiming for $76,000. If ETH/BTC continues to strengthen, consider a hedged position going long ETH and short BTC.

Risk Warning: The market is at a critical turning point. Geopolitical tensions, Fed statements, Trump’s tariff policies, and other macro variables could trigger sharp volatility at any time. Regardless of position, strictly control leverage and set stop-loss orders. #Gate廣場發帖領五萬美金紅包 #我在Gate廣場過新年 $BTC