Market reversal? US CPI below expectations helps Bitcoin return to $69,000, but why is the market cautious about Fed rate cuts?

On February 14, 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics unexpectedly slowed the January US CPI (Consumer Price Index) growth, with year-over-year increase dropping to 2.4%, below market expectations. This key macroeconomic indicator’s change quickly stirred waves in global capital markets. As a representative of high-risk assets, Bitcoin responded by rising, with its price once again surpassing the $69,000 mark. However, despite signs of easing inflation pressures, market expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates in the near term remain low.

This article, based on the latest market data from the Gate platform as of February 14, 2026, provides an in-depth analysis of how this CPI data transmits through the crypto market, exploring the technical patterns and future trends of Bitcoin ($68,923.1) and Ethereum ($2,050.34) amid the current complex macro environment.

Inflation Surprise Eases, Crypto Market Rebounds After Long Violation

February 14, 2026, is a pivotal trading day for global financial markets. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its US CPI report on the 13th, showing an unexpected slowdown in overall inflation for January.

Data indicates that the unadjusted US CPI for January rose by 2.4% YoY, down from 2.7% previously and below the market consensus of 2.5%. Core CPI increased by 2.5% YoY, also lower than the previous figure. The release of this critical macroeconomic data immediately caused a ripple effect across risk assets. As “digital gold,” Bitcoin was the first to respond, sharply rallying from recent consolidation lows.

US Consumer Price Index (CPI) 12-month percentage change. Data source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

According to the latest data from Gate, Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded to $68,923.1 today, with a 24-hour change of +3.54%, reaching a high of $69,479.4, just a step away from the psychological $70,000 level. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) also followed the rally, up 5.37% in the past 24 hours, currently priced at $2,050.34.

Bitcoin price, source: Gate

CPI and Fed: Why Are Rate Cut Expectations Still “Tangled”?

Although the inflation data injected confidence into the market, interpretations of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future monetary policy path, especially regarding rate cuts, remain complex.

On the surface, easing inflation should relax the Fed’s tightening stance. CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows that after the data release, traders’ probability of a rate cut at the June meeting surged to 83%. However, behind this optimism, markets remain cautious about the March or May meetings. Data shows the probability of a rate cut in March still remains in the single digits.

Probability of the Federal Reserve’s March FOMC target rate. Source: CME Group

This “near-term concern, long-term optimism” contradiction mainly stems from two points:

• Persistent core inflation: While overall CPI data is encouraging, core services prices—especially housing and healthcare—remain sticky. Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Fed, stated immediately after the data release that inflation is still “trapped around 3%”, not yet on track toward 2%.

• Labor market resilience: Recent employment reports show strong hiring, making it difficult for the Fed to prematurely open the rate cut channel without clear signs of economic slowdown.

Therefore, the current market pricing suggests that the Fed is likely to initiate its first rate cut around mid-year (possibly June), with a total of 2 to 3 cuts, totaling approximately 63 basis points.

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin (BTC) in the $68,000 Zone — Attack and Defense

Fueled by macro sentiment, Bitcoin has regained a key technical level. As of February 14, 2026, BTC’s 24-hour trading volume reached $818.7 million, with a market cap stable at $1.31 trillion, and market share rising to 55.42%.

From a technical perspective, the $68,000 to $69,000 range is the focal point of the bulls and bears. As analysts previously pointed out, this zone not only bears the psychological resistance but also is near the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA). If Bitcoin can hold above $69,000 effectively, the next target is the liquidity-rich zone around $72,000; otherwise, support levels near $66,000 should be watched.

Deep Dive into Gate Market Data

Based on on-chain and trading data aggregated by Gate, although prices have rebounded, market sentiment has not fully shifted to “greed.” Perpetual contract markets saw large liquidations during the rebound, with over $365 million liquidated in the past 24 hours, predominantly shorts, which accelerated the price rally.

Notably, despite recent volatility, long-term holders (whales holding over 1,000 BTC) continue to accumulate. Addresses with over 1,000 BTC have maintained net increases over the past month, providing a solid demand foundation.

Ethereum (ETH) and Outlook

As a market bellwether, Ethereum has followed BTC’s lead, rising to $2,050.34. Although the daily increase is impressive, over the past 30 days, ETH has still declined by 41.81%. Its current market cap is $233.26 billion, with a market share of 9.80%.

For investors, the macro environment currently shows “improving data but cautious policy.” The weakening US CPI offers a rebound window for risk assets, but a true trend reversal awaits clearer dovish signals from the Fed.

On the Gate platform, we advise users to watch upcoming releases of the PCE price index and non-farm payrolls, which will be key variables in adjusting rate cut expectations. Based on Gate’s comprehensive data analysis, Bitcoin’s price in 2026 is expected to fluctuate within a broad range, with strong support around $62,752.15. If bullish sentiment persists, testing previous highs remains highly probable.

Summary and Outlook

In summary, the slowdown in US January CPI provides a strong rebound opportunity for the oscillating crypto market, with Bitcoin consolidating support above $68,000. However, the “near-term concern, long-term optimism” regarding Fed rate cuts indicates that the macro liquidity turning point is not imminent. The future policy path of the Fed will continue to depend on whether core inflation can be thoroughly broken and how quickly the labor market cools.

For traders, the short-term focus is on the attack and defense around $69,000 to $70,000. If upcoming macro data continues to support the trend, prices may test higher resistance zones; otherwise, caution for technical pullbacks is advised. Gate will continue to monitor macroeconomic developments and on-chain data, providing timely and objective market analysis. Traders should remain aware of market volatility and practice proper risk management.