Institution: Bitcoin Still Faces Further Downside Risk, Deep Bear Market Could See Prices Halve Again

On February 14, according to Business Insider, a strategist from Ned Davis Research stated in a client report this month that despite Bitcoin experiencing significant sell-offs over the past few months, it still faces further downside risk. Ned Davis Research Chief Market Strategist Pat Tschosik and analyst Philippe Mouls pointed out that based on an analysis of past Bitcoin downturn cycles, if the current bear market evolves into a full-blown “crypto winter,” the decline from peak to trough could reach 70% to 75%, meaning Bitcoin could drop as low as $31,000. Bitcoin has already fallen 44% from its peak in October last year. If it drops to $31,000, that would represent a further 55% decline from current levels. Tschosik and Mouls added that data shows, dating back to 2011, the average decline during Bitcoin bear markets has been 84%, with an average duration of 225 days. Since Bitcoin peaked in early October last year, only 129 days have passed so far. However, the two analysts also noted that a “winter” is not necessarily inevitable. Compared to the past, Bitcoin currently has more institutional buyers, which could provide greater price stability. “Historical data shows that the declines during winters or major bear markets tend to slow slightly over time, and we believe this trend will continue,” they said when discussing price forecasts.