January housing prices month-on-month decline narrows overall, the real estate market steadily transitions toward stabilization and recovery

The National Bureau of Statistics announced the housing price data for 70 large and medium-sized cities in January 2026 yesterday (the 13th). In January, the month-on-month decline in housing prices in first-, second-, and third-tier cities generally narrowed.

Zhang Bo, Director of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute, stated that in January, housing prices in the 70 large and medium-sized cities continued the core characteristics of structural adjustment and bottoming out, with overall prices still in a downward pattern. However, demand resilience is evident, and positive signals from circulation are increasing. The overall real estate market is steadily transitioning toward stabilization and recovery, with the dual effects of policy support and spontaneous market repair gradually becoming apparent.

“Especially in January, the stabilization of the second-hand housing market in core cities was the result of the combined effects of policy factors and market confidence recovery,” Zhang Bo said.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in January, second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, narrowing the decline by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased by 0.2%, 0.4%, 0.7%, and 0.6%, respectively. Second- and third-tier cities saw month-on-month declines of 0.5% and 0.6%, with the declines narrowing by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively.

Regarding new homes, prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, the same as the previous month. Shanghai remained flat, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased by 0.3%, 0.6%, and 0.4%, respectively. New home prices in second-tier cities fell by 0.3%, narrowing the decline by 0.1 percentage points. In third-tier cities, new home prices decreased by 0.4%, the same as last month.

Zhang Bo analyzed that the differences in market levels among new homes in various city tiers are becoming more pronounced. First-tier cities, leveraging core resource endowments and demand resilience, have stabilized their new home prices, becoming the core anchor for price stability nationwide. New first-tier and second-tier cities, such as Wuhan, Qingdao, and Jinan, have seen significant increases in market activity, becoming important drivers of regional market recovery.

Entering 2026, policy signals of “stabilizing expectations” have become clearer. Several specific measures have been implemented early in the year, including extended tax rebate policies for home exchanges, loan extensions and structural rate cuts for whitelist projects, and support for urban renewal.

As the Spring Festival approaches, to seize the opportunity of returning home for home purchases, many local governments have introduced a new round of measures to boost the housing market. Real estate companies across the country have also launched various Spring Festival promotions, including discounts, special-priced listings, additional reductions, home appliance packages, free parking spaces, travel funds, and more, in diverse formats.

Zhang Bo believes that the market bottoming and stabilization of second-hand homes, the recovery of the brokerage industry, and high buyer attention to second-hand properties in January have provided solid fundamental support for the lively Spring Festival housing market. Additionally, returning home for home purchases, promotional activities by developers, and policy overlaps during the festival further amplify signals of market revival.

Meng Xinzeng, Senior Analyst at the China Index Academy, stated that looking ahead, as high-quality land parcels in core cities gradually come onto the market in 2025, and some developers are expected to intensify promotions before the Spring Festival to attract early buyers, market demand is likely to gradually release in March. The “small spring” market in core cities remains worth期待.

(Source: China.com Finance)