Upstart stock soars 11%, 2026 revenue guidance exceeds expectations

LootboxPhobia · 2026-02-14T00:45:35+00:00

Upstart Holdings exceeded expectations in Q4 revenue, with the stock soaring 11%. Despite revenue of $296.06 million, a 35% year-over-year increase, earnings per share fell short of expectations. The company projects revenue of $1.4 billion in 2026. The CEO stated that business growth is strong, aiming for a 35% compound annual growth rate.

LootboxPhobia

2026-02-14 00:45:35

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San Mateo, California – AI lending platform Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST) saw its stock surge 11% after quarterly revenue exceeded expectations and 2026 guidance was issued significantly above analyst estimates, despite the company missing profit expectations.

The company reported fourth-quarter revenue of $296.06 million, surpassing analyst estimates of $288.45 million and representing a 35% year-over-year increase. However, Upstart’s adjusted earnings per share were $0.17, below the consensus estimate of $0.46. For the full fiscal year 2026, Upstart projects revenue of approximately $1.4 billion, well above analyst forecasts of $1.27 billion.

Upstart co-founder and CEO Dave Girouard stated, “In 2025, our loan originations grew 86%, revenue increased 64%, and headcount only grew 18% — a ratio any business would envy. We have reaffirmed Upstart’s position as a strong profitable enterprise.”

In Q4, Upstart originated 455,788 loans, an 86% increase year-over-year, with total originations reaching approximately $3.2 billion, up 52% from the same period last year. The company also improved its conversion rate to 19.4%, up from 18.0% in Q4 2024.

Upstart reported operating income of $19 million for the quarter, a significant improvement from a $4.8 million loss in the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA reached $63.7 million, with a profit margin of 22%, up from $38.8 million and 18% in Q4 2024.

The company also announced leadership changes, with co-founder Paul Gu set to succeed Dave Girouard as CEO on May 1.

Looking ahead, Upstart aims for a compound annual growth rate of approximately 35% in total revenue from 2025 to 2028, with an eventual adjusted EBITDA profit margin of around 25%.

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