35-Day Cycle: Bitcoin Could Drop 50% Based on Historical Patterns

BoredRiceBall · 2026-02-13T14:03:40+00:00

The essay analyzes Bitcoin's historical behavior when it falls below its 100-week simple moving average (SMA), suggesting that significant price drops usually follow. It discusses past corrections and warns of potential declines, estimating a 50% drop may occur in the coming months.

BoredRiceBall

2026-02-13 14:03:40

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When Bitcoin closes below its 100-week simple moving average, history suggests tough times are ahead. According to data analysis, this technical indicator consistently acts as a crucial macro support level, and its breach often triggers significant price movements. Several cycles have shown that when this barrier is broken, the asset tends to decline further until finding support at the 200-week SMA.

The 100-Week SMA Rule: Why This Indicator Matters

Since 2015, Bitcoin’s 100-week moving average has served as a protective shield for the price. Whenever Bitcoin dips below this level, it is usually followed by a severe decline. History shows these drops typically last between 30 to 50 days, enough time for substantial corrections ranging from 45% to 58%. This pattern has repeated numerous times, indicating a behavioral trend that investors should pay attention to.

Correction History: When Bitcoin Falls Below Support

Past records provide clear examples of this pattern. In December 2014, after a weekly close below the 100-week SMA, Bitcoin retreated 55% over approximately 35 days until reaching the 200-week SMA. Four years later, in November 2018, the same phenomenon occurred: a 45% drop that took about 28 days to complete. During the March 2020 panic, the devaluation was even faster and sharper—Bitcoin fell from the 100-week SMA to the 200-week SMA in just 7 days, with a correction of 47%. The most recent precedent happened in May 2022, when the price devalued by 58% over roughly 49 days.

Current Scenario: Bitcoin Faces Technical Warning Signs

In recent weeks, Bitcoin again closed below the 100-week SMA, repeating the trigger that preceded all documented major corrections. If historical patterns repeat with similar accuracy to previous cycles, a decline of approximately 50% could be on the horizon. The expected price target range is between $56,000 and $50,000, and if this drop materializes, it could occur over the next few months, potentially between March and April. This analysis based on 35 days and historical cycles provides an important framework for understanding the technical risks Bitcoin may face in the coming periods.

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