Analysis of the US CPI Forecast for January 2026: The "Decisive Blow" for Fed Interest Rates and BTC?

🚨 🚨 🚨 Today, February 13, 2026, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the CPI for January 2026. This is the most important inflation data in weeks, as it will determine whether the Fed continues to “higher for longer” or opens the door to another interest rate cut.

1. Consensus Forecasts (Dow Jones, Reuters, WSJ, FactSet…)

Headline CPI (overall)

YoY: 2.5% (previous month: 2.7%) → Lowest since May 2025

MoM: +0.3% (previous month: +0.3%)

Core CPI (excluding food & energy)

YoY: 2.5% (previous month: 2.6%) → Lowest since March 2021

MoM: +0.3% (previous month: +0.2%)

Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast (updated February 12): headline ~2.36%, core ~2.45% → Slightly lower than consensus.

2. Why is the January CPI usually “hot” and poses a large upside risk?

Seasonal reset effect: Many companies increased prices for health insurance, cars, and medicines in January → core MoM easily exceeds 0.3%.

Trump tariffs: Economists at Wells Fargo, Société Générale, and Natixis all warn that some goods have already begun price adjustments due to tariffs → core goods may “firm” (increase more sharply than expected).

History: January is usually the month with the highest inflation of the year (the Boston Fed has reiterated this).

→ If core MoM is 0.4% or headline YoY only falls to 2.6%, the market will consider this a “hot print”.

3. Impact on Fed policy

Base scenario (highest probability ~65–70%): CPI matches forecast → inflation continues to slow down, but remains above the 2% target. The Fed will keep interest rates stable at least until June-July 2026 (the market is pricing in only about 2-3 25bps cuts throughout 2026).

Bullish scenario (cooler CPI): Headline 2.4% or core MoM only 0.2% → probability of a May interest rate cut surges → 10-year bond yields fall sharply, USD weakens → very good for crypto.

Bearish scenario (hot CPI): Core MoM 0.4%+ → Fed will be more hawkish, possibly delaying the interest rate cut → yields rise, USD strengthens → strong selling pressure on Bitcoin & altcoins.

4. Direct impact on Crypto (very clear)

   $BTC is currently sideways around $66,000-$67,000, having fallen for 4 consecutive weeks and lost nearly 6% this week.

Cool CPI (lower than forecast):

→ DXY falls, 10-year yields fall → Risk-on money flows into BTC.

→ Nearest target: $69,000 – $70,000 (strong resistance zone).

→ Many analysts (Coinpedia, Ted Pillows) believe this is the necessary catalyst for BTC breakout.

Hot CPI (higher than forecast):

→ JPMorgan and Standard Chartered both warn of the possibility of BTC falling to $60,000 – $62,000 (major retail liquidation zone).

→ Ethereum risks breaking below $2,000, altcoins bleed strongly.

Conclusion & Practical Advice

The CPI for January 2026 is not just a number – it’s a “test” of whether inflation under Trump + tariffs is truly “sticky”. The crypto market is extremely sensitive: even a 0.1% deviation in core MoM data is enough to cause 3-5% volatility within 1-2 hours of the announcement.

Short-term strategy recommendations:

If holding: prepare for significant volatility; consider setting a stop-loss below 65,000 (BTC) or 1,950 (ETH).

If wanting to trade the event: wait for official news; avoid FOMO before 8:30 PM.

Long-term: if CPI cools → the 2026 bull trend remains intact. If it heats up → it’s just a healthy pullback before the Fed reverses course. #CelebratingNewYearOnGateSquare