On February 11th, after the release of the U.S. January non-farm payroll data, market expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy shifted significantly. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady at the March meeting surged to 94.0%, up sharply from 78.3% before the data release; meanwhile, the chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in March was only 6.0%, down from 21.7% prior to the data.

As of now, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the April meeting is 18.8% (previously 35.7%), the chance of holding rates steady is 80.4% (previously 58.9%), and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is only 0.9% (previously 5.4%). The probability of a 25 basis point cut in June is 49.4%, roughly unchanged from before the data release. #当前行情抄底还是观望？ $BTC