As the next round of chip tariffs approaches, Trump aims to stabilize AI investment! May potentially exempt U.S. tech giants

The Tong Finance APP has learned that media outlets citing informed sources report that the U.S. federal government led by President Trump plans to exempt major American tech giants such as Amazon (AMZN.US), Google (GOOGL.US), and Microsoft (MSFT.US) from the upcoming significant new round of export tariffs on chips. This exemption is primarily because these large technology companies are heavily investing in building AI data centers, and this vigorous AI investment and construction process are considered crucial to the U.S. economy.

Sources emphasize that these special exemptions related to chip tariffs will be granted by the U.S. Department of Commerce after trade investigations and are closely linked to TSMC (TSM.US), known as the “King of Chip Foundries,” which has committed over $100 billion in high-performance AI chip manufacturing and packaging in the U.S., including advanced 3nm and below process nodes.

However, sources also stress that this large-scale tariff exemption plan is still under adjustment and has not yet been signed into law by President Trump.

Previously, TSMC highlighted during its January earnings call that the world’s largest chip foundry is actively investing up to $165 billion, with plans to build multiple large-scale chip manufacturing plants in Arizona. One of these plants has already achieved 5nm chip production capacity in the U.S.

How important is the progress of AI data center construction to the U.S. economy?

Undoubtedly, the construction of AI data centers has rapidly evolved from a technological investment into a major macroeconomic driver. According to the latest estimates from JPMorgan, capital expenditures related to AI data centers could contribute approximately 0.1–0.2 percentage points (10–20 basis points) to U.S. GDP growth in 2025–2026. This mainly stems from investments by large cloud service providers like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon in large AI data centers such as “Stargate” and related infrastructure. Such large-scale investments not only boost demand across multiple industries including construction, equipment, and power supply but also significantly buffer the slowdown in U.S. economic growth caused by a persistently weak labor market. These policy arrangements are also seen as linked to commitments by key foundries like TSMC to expand production in the U.S., ensuring stable AI computing power supply chains and promoting local chip manufacturing.

In this context, if the critical hardware products essential for data center construction—namely, key chips—are subjected to blanket high tariffs, it could substantially increase the costs of building AI data centers, delay project timelines, and undermine investor confidence, thereby potentially dragging down economic growth in the short term. Research shows that tariffs tend to reduce economic growth and, in the long run, may compress capacity and capital stock.

Therefore, the latest exemption rumors indicating the need for chip tariff waivers for core AI data center hardware essentially reflect the Trump administration’s attempt to maintain the momentum of large-scale AI infrastructure investments and prevent setbacks in market expectations and actual investments. Behind this is a broader effort by the federal government to view AI investment as a “GDP growth engine” rather than merely a policy incentive for industry.

If U.S. tech giants’ stock prices sharply decline due to tariffs, the Trump administration cannot afford it

Furthermore, broader research and market analysis indicate that AI and related technological investments have become key variables driving U.S. economic growth. For example, some Wall Street analysts point out that AI-related investments have contributed nearly 1% to U.S. GDP growth in 2024–2025, significantly boosting tech stock valuations and generating wealth effects that support consumption and investment. This is especially important given the weakening of other traditional growth drivers.

At the stock level, if the high-weighted “Magnificent Seven” stocks experience significant declines due to chip tariffs, it could trigger a financial crisis-level event for U.S. markets and the economy.

Within the broad U.S. tech sector, the “Magnificent Seven”—which hold substantial weight in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100—have the greatest impact on profitability. According to analyst consensus compiled by institutions, the “Magnificent Seven” are expected to see an overall profit growth rate of about 24% in 2026, compared to roughly 12.5% for the remaining 493 companies in the S&P 500. This means their profit growth is nearly double that of the broader market.

From both earnings outlook and market weight perspectives, the tech industry—especially the seven leading tech giants—remains the “core driver” of U.S. stock market profit growth and bullish performance in 2026. Their influence on the index is even more pronounced given their high market share. Although market rotation is becoming more evident, from an earnings perspective, this rotation may not last long. The unprecedented AI infrastructure buildout and the AI investment theme of the “Magnificent Seven” are expected to remain the strongest market drivers through 2026, just as in 2024 and 2025.

The so-called “Magnificent Seven,” which account for about 35% of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices, include Apple, Microsoft, Google, Tesla, Nvidia, Amazon, and Meta Platforms (Facebook’s parent company). They are the primary drivers behind the record highs of the S&P 500 and are regarded by top Wall Street investment firms as the most capable group to deliver substantial returns amid the largest technological transformation since the internet era.