Hold coins or hold stocks? 13 brokerages unanimously bullish: Holding stocks for the holiday, spring market still expected

Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and the A-shares market will enter a 9-day trading suspension window. Combined with the regular market closure on Saturday, February 14th, the total market closure will reach 10 days. The question of whether to hold stocks or hold cash has once again become the market focus.

As of February 9th, 13 securities firms have intensively issued strategic opinions, forming a rare consensus: all recommend holding stocks over the holiday.

From the core logic, securities firms generally believe that the policy environment, fundamental expectations, and liquidity pattern supporting the spring market have not reversed. The previous adjustments have released some risks. Coupled with the “Spring Festival effect” and historical patterns, the probability of a market rebound after the holiday is relatively high. Holding stocks over the holiday offers both a high success rate and favorable odds.

13 securities firms are unanimously optimistic

The views from these securities firms are highly unified, all advising against holding cash or staying in cash-only positions, with only minor differences in position sizes and structure.

Everbright Securities believes that the spring market this year remains promising. In the coming months, whether in terms of policies or fundamentals, there could still be positive news. After the Spring Festival, market trading activity is expected to pick up again. Based on high-frequency data during the holiday and industry hot topics, the market may usher in a new round of upward movement.

Dongwu Securities suggests that the factors suppressing the market will gradually weaken. Combining with the spring effect pattern, the main index is expected to rebound starting this week (2.9 to 2.13), with the rally likely to continue for several trading days after the holiday.

Notably, Galaxy Securities offers a more balanced approach: “Light position holding over the holiday.” Galaxy Securities believes that, given the current trend of the A-share market, “light position holding over the holiday” is a cautious and historically consistent strategy. It avoids the volatility risk of market contraction before the holiday while maintaining participation opportunities in the spring market after the holiday, especially suitable during this transitional phase when policy expectations have been partly fulfilled and earnings verification has not yet begun.

“Stay optimistic, hold stocks over the holiday.” Zheshang Securities’ quantitative research team believes that the global risk appetite resonance may have peaked, and the best window for strategic positioning could arrive before the holiday.

Industrial Securities’ chief strategist Zhang Qiyao emphasizes that the core reason the spring market is not over is that the domestic fundamentals supporting it—improving fundamentals, policy “opening red,” and ample liquidity—have not changed. As previous adjustments have released some risks, recent changes in global narratives are gradually diminishing their impact on market sentiment. Increased catalysts and the “Spring Festival effect” are expected to create a favorable environment for market recovery, making holding stocks over the holiday both a high probability and favorable odds. Investors can gradually shift from defensive to more active allocations, focusing on the Spring Festival rally.

Haitong International Securities’ chief economist Zhang Yidong is optimistic about the Spring Festival红包行情, expecting the last week before the holiday (A-shares and Hong Kong stocks) to rebound and rise. First, as the holiday approaches, policy guidance will shift to actively support the Chinese stock market. Second, a phase of positive turnaround is underway. Third, strategic investors mainly in insurance are increasing their holdings amid market adjustments. Fourth, the seasonal pattern of the spring market in China remains promising.

Review of Spring Festival patterns over the past 20 years

Dongwu Securities reviewed the market performance before and after the Spring Festival over the past 20 years, summarizing four patterns:

1. Volume characteristics show “shrinking volume before the festival and expanding volume after.” Data indicates that trading volume usually begins to decline about 8 days before the festival (T-8), with the trend continuing until the first trading day after the holiday. From T+2 onward, the volume center significantly rises, trading enthusiasm recovers, and market liquidity gradually restores.

2. In terms of trend, the week before the festival is the best window for index positioning, with a rebound turning point often occurring around five days before the holiday.

3. Style rotation is prominent around the festival. Before the festival, large-cap stocks outperform small-cap stocks, and growth outperforms value; after the festival, small and micro-cap stocks tend to outperform large caps. The return differential between growth and value styles is relatively mild. Sector-wise, financials, consumer, and growth styles have higher success rates and odds before the festival, while cyclicals and growth styles tilt toward the post-festival period.

4. Industry performance shows that sectors like non-ferrous metals, automobiles, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and power equipment perform well before the festival, while sectors like environmental protection, electronics, media, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery perform better after.

Small and micro-cap stocks are favored

Building on the consensus of optimism, institutional allocations are also highly focused, with many securities firms recommending small and micro-cap stocks.

Everbright Securities notes that, from a style perspective, small-cap stocks tend to perform better in the spring market, suggesting focus on growth and cyclicality themes. Under a five-dimensional industry comparison framework, top-scoring sectors include electronics, power equipment, machinery, non-ferrous metals, and communications and computers—mainly growth and independent prosperity sectors, which are worth attention in February.

Zheshang Securities’ quantitative research team believes that, from a seasonal effect perspective, the period immediately after the Spring Festival is also a traditional strong phase for small and micro-cap stocks. Over the past 20 years (2006-2025), the cumulative excess return of the Wind Micro-cap Index relative to the CSI 300 during the 20 trading days after the festival has averaged 10.4%, with an 85% success rate. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on small and micro-cap stocks now.

Dongwu Securities suggests that, in terms of allocation, investors should focus on: first, technology sectors that are overly priced during this adjustment, including domestic chips, semiconductor equipment, storage chips, computing power communication, and cloud computing; second, sectors with cyclical prosperity, such as energy storage/lithium battery industry chain, wind power, and other cyclical segments; third, themes related to the 14th Five-Year Plan, including commercial aerospace, 6G, nuclear power, hydrogen energy, quantum communication, and brain-computer interfaces.

Industrial Securities believes that, in terms of relative success rate, technology manufacturing and resource-based infrastructure sectors outperform after the festival. Combining recent gains and sector prosperity, focus on TMT, high-end manufacturing, and domestically driven sectors such as chemicals, building materials, and steel.

Guoxin Securities’ chief strategist Wu Xinkun states that the probability of A-shares rising in the week before and after the festival exceeds 70%. Before the festival, the market tends to shrink in volume and outperform the large caps; after the festival, volume expands and small caps outperform. Currently, macro policy tone is positive, overseas risks are controllable, and holding stocks over the holiday is likely the best strategy. A balanced allocation across sectors is recommended, with emphasis on AI applications in technology, and attention to cyclicals and liquor and real estate.

Guotai Haitong Research also notes that overseas financial tightening expectations are marginally improving, and domestic policy focus is shifting toward domestic demand. After panic selling, the Chinese stock market has reached a critical point, and holding stocks over the holiday is advised. Emerging technology remains the main theme, and value stocks will also have their spring.

CITIC Securities’ research reports that in recent years, China’s capital market has completed the transition from “virtual to real” pricing, currently in the process of verifying and pricing “quality and efficiency improvements.” There is no need to worry about short-term market fluctuations. For allocation, maintaining a foundation in “resources + traditional manufacturing,” with low positions in non-bank financials and increased holdings in consumer and real estate sectors is recommended.