Cross-border e-commerce benefits from policy advantages; these concept stocks are expected to see high growth in performance(list)

Three departments jointly issue a document to support the development of new foreign trade formats.

Cross-border e-commerce export return tax benefits extended for another two years

On February 9, the Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Taxation Administration jointly issued a notice clarifying the tax benefits policy for exported returned goods under cross-border e-commerce.

The notice stipulates that for goods declared for export under the cross-border electronic commerce customs supervision codes (1210, 9610, 9710, 9810) between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2027, and returned within six months of export due to unsold inventory or returns (excluding food), import duties, value-added tax (VAT), and consumption tax at the import stage are exempted; export duties already paid at the time of export may be refunded; VAT and consumption tax already paid at the time of export will be handled according to the tax regulations for domestic sales returns.

The four customs supervision codes mentioned above refer to bonded import via online shopping, direct purchase import, cross-border e-commerce B2B direct export, and cross-border e-commerce export to overseas warehouses. The notice also clearly defines “return in its original state”: the minimum form of returned goods should be basically consistent with the original export, without adding accessories, parts, or undergoing processing or modification; unpacking, inspection, installation, or debugging do not constitute a change in the original state.

It is understood that this tax benefit policy for exported returned goods under cross-border e-commerce was introduced in 2023 and was set to expire at the end of last year. The issuance of this notice means the policy will be extended for another two years.

A relevant person from the Customs Tariff Department of the Ministry of Finance stated that the notice continues to implement tax benefits for exported returned goods under cross-border e-commerce, aiming to further reduce the export return costs for cross-border e-commerce enterprises, alleviate their concerns, and actively support the development of new foreign trade formats.

“Exporting prosperity remains high, and it is recommended to focus on leading brands going overseas and B2B companies actively promoting AI applications,” a recent research report from Orient Securities pointed out. By 2026, with declining tariff costs and industry supply-side improvements caused by tax-related events, leading companies are expected to see profit margin recovery and performance improvement; B2B companies already have clear AI-driven revenue growth logic, with many promising future business developments.

Two concept stocks are expected to see net profit double this year

The Orient Wealth Concept Sector shows that approximately 160 stocks in the A-share market are related to the cross-border e-commerce concept, with a total market value of 1.84 trillion yuan. SF Holding stands out with a market cap of nearly 200 billion yuan, ranking first. Small Commodity City, Guohuo Airlines, and Blue Focus each have market caps between 70 billion and 85 billion yuan. Three other stocks, Anker Innovation, Hainan Airport, and others, also have market caps exceeding 50 billion yuan.

Since 2026, about 70% of cross-border e-commerce concept stocks have seen their stock prices rise, with many of the top gains associated with stocks that also incorporate AI applications. Notably, Blue Focus and OneNetOneCreative both increased by over 70%, Yidian Tianxia, Ke Shu, and Guangyun Technology each gained over 50%, and InnoGroup also rose over 40% this year.

According to Orient Wealth Choice data, 80 cross-border e-commerce concept stocks have disclosed their 2025 performance forecasts, with significant performance divergence:

Fourteen stocks, including Jihong Shares, Shangluo Electronics, Lishang Guochao, OneNetOneCreative, and Qingmu Technology, are expected to see net profit increases year-over-year; 10 stocks such as Blue Focus, Mengbaihe, and Xinghui Shares have turned profitable; 15 stocks like Xinning Logistics, Yuanda Holdings, and Zhuyin Group have achieved reduced losses.

Eighteen stocks, including Juran Smart Home, Sanyangma, Jiemate, and Daye Shares, are expected to report first-time losses in 2025; 10 stocks such as Bostek, Xianle Health, and Nanjing Business Travel are forecasted to see reduced net profits; several stocks like Aokang International, Nanshan Holdings, and Anzheng Fashion have experienced increased losses.

Regarding growth potential this year, based on unanimous forecasts from three or more institutions, Juran Smart Home and Hars are both expected to see their net profits double in 2026; three stocks including Aofei Entertainment and Wangfujing may see net profit increases of over 70%; five stocks such as Xianle Health, Qingmu Technology, and Mengbaihe are all expected to achieve net profit growth of over 50%.

(Source: Orient Wealth Research Center)