Wu Shuo learned from GreekLive that recently the market has stabilized, with implied volatility (IV) for major maturities significantly declining. However, the actual volatility (RV) over the past week remains high, leading to a historic drop in the one-cycle volatility risk premium (VRP). The average level quickly fell from +20% last week to -25%, a decline of about 45%, which is quite rare. This reflects the market's rapid adjustment of expectations for future volatility. However, considering that Bitcoin's volatility has notable "clustering" characteristics and institutional sentiment may be overly optimistic, a second round of decline could put the market in a passive position. The irrationality in the options market is increasing, and historical experience shows that such situations often indicate that a bottom has not yet been confirmed.
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Wu Shuo learned from GreekLive that recently the market has stabilized, with implied volatility (IV) for major maturities significantly declining. However, the actual volatility (RV) over the past week remains high, leading to a historic drop in the one-cycle volatility risk premium (VRP). The average level quickly fell from +20% last week to -25%, a decline of about 45%, which is quite rare. This reflects the market's rapid adjustment of expectations for future volatility. However, considering that Bitcoin's volatility has notable "clustering" characteristics and institutional sentiment may be overly optimistic, a second round of decline could put the market in a passive position. The irrationality in the options market is increasing, and historical experience shows that such situations often indicate that a bottom has not yet been confirmed.